Does Gentrification Increase Support for the Incumbent?

Gentrification research has long examined how rising property values and demographic turnover reshape urban neighborhoods. Yet, little is known about how disaster-preparedness policies might drive these processes. We analyze neighborhood-level data from 2011 to 2023 in Istanbul, where the government’s classification of “high-risk” disaster zones is posited to have facilitated widespread demolition and reconstruction of older buildings. Our findings show that neighborhoods receiving these designations experienced a notable rise in electoral support for the ruling party. These results suggest that policies ostensibly aimed at public safety can simultaneously transform local housing markets and bolster incumbent power, highlighting the political and social ramifications of disaster mitigation and gentrification.