Risk or Reward for Group Targeting? Voter Reactions to the Fulfilment of Targeted Pledges
Political parties increasingly target voters with group-specific pledges. While this strategy can influence prospective voting, little is known about how voters react when these promises are fulfilled or non-fulfilled. Can incumbents capitalize better on fulfilling targeted pledges? We examine whether group membership, identification, and deservingness perceptions lead voters to react more positively to fulfilled group-targeted pledges (and negatively to non-fulfilled ones), compared to broad-based pledges benefiting all citizens. Our survey experiment (N=3,500) implemented in Germany shows that these factors significantly shape reactions to the fulfilment of group-targeted promises. However, compared to broad-based pledges, fulfilling targeted pledges does not earn parties additional support from those affected or those who see the targeted group as deserving. Targeted pledges even risk alienating outgroup voters, potentially reducing overall support. While such pledges may seem electorally advantageous, our findings suggest that parties risk losing more than they gain even when fulfilling them.