Shocks and their consequences: how the global financial crisis is shaping British vote choices

Time: 
27.11.2017 - 12:00 to 13:30
Location : 
A 5,6 Raum A 231
Type of Event : 
AB B-Kolloquium
Lecturer: 
Prof. Jane Green
Lecturer affiliation: 
The University of Manchester
Description: 
Traditional models of economic voting focus on the short run effects of the economy on the vote, typically the effect of economic performance in the year leading up to an election. In this presentation I reveal new ways in which economic shocks shape public opinion and electoral choice. I first focus on a theory of shocks, and how they re-organise public opinion about parties, drawing on a wide range of cases and historical data. I then focus on a particular example; the effect of the global financial crisis (in 2007-08) on subsequent British elections. Using British Election Panel study data between 2005 and 2017 I show how the financial crisis of 2008 impacted on vote choices in the 2015 general election, on the 2016 EU referendum, and potentially also on the 2017 general election. The analyses reveal three mechanisms through which the effects of economic shocks can be much longer-lasting than conventional wisdom assumes, and reveal a new way of thinking about the economic vote. The presentation poses questions for how the financial crisis is still shaping recent political upheavals in Britain, and possibly also further afield.