The Effect of Politicization on Protest Participation in Non-Democracies: The Case of Hungary

Politicization – the expansion of conflict in the political system – is often assumed to be associated with high levels of participation. Yet, this is not necessarily the case, especially in contexts of democratic backsliding. This study investigates how the politicization of protest events affects individuals’ willingness to participate in protests, using Hungary as a most likely case. We examine three causal mechanisms that may mediate this effect: perceived risks of participation, political efficacy, and public support. While the rise of polarization and party involvement in protest politics is well-documented, their combined effect on participation remains underexplored. Empirically, we rely on a pre-registered survey experiment conducted in August 2024. Participants were presented with a vignette describing a call to participate in a fictitious protest event, with varying levels of politicization. To operationalize politicization, we manipulated the issue’s salience, the polarization of positions presented, and the number of actors involved in the protest. Our findings challenge the prevailing assumption by demonstrating that increasing politicization leads to lower levels of protest participation. In addition, causal mediation analysis shows that this demobilizing effect is primarily due to reduced perceived political efficacy and expected public support. The study contributes to the literature by identifying the unique causal effect of politicization, rooted in micro-level dynamics of political participation. Based on the implications of our results, we emphasize the need for opposition movements to foster solidarity and enhance the perceived effectiveness of protests to counteract the demobilizing impact of politicization.