Brexit – but where?

Date: 
Saturday, 25. June 2016
Medium: 
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Author: Thomas König

"British Prime Minister David Cameron has miscalculated and resigned after the British majority had voted for the Brexit. To unify his fractious Conservative Party and to stop the rise of the Eurosceptic UKIP, the British Prime Minister announced in January 2013 to hold a referendum on the United Kingdom’ membership in the European Union (EU) in case of his re-election in the upcoming British election. This move by the British prime minister could resolve the Conservative Party’s conflict over EU membership – a conflict that was not apparent in competing parties like Labour and Liberals. After his Conservative Party somewhat surprisingly won the absolute majority of parliamentary seats with about 37% votes in May 2015, the plan of the British Prime Minister seemed to be working.

Persuaded in his ability to convince the British voters of the country’s benefits from EU membership, the British Prime Minister fought with similar arguments, which convinced the Scots to vote for remaining in the United Kingdom in a referendum of September 2014: the danger of economic disadvantages, the loss of power and influence on the world markets as well as the general risks of a more uncertain future, motivated the Scots for a stay in the UK, but could not convince the British for a common future with the EU. Even the so-called "terms" as the concessions for a continuing British membership in the EU, which the British Prime Minister negotiated ahead of the referendum with the Member States, could not overcome the concerns of a British majority in the end. Now Britain will leave the EU and David Cameron resigned.

For many observers, this outcome is suprising. Indeed, the prospects for the UK from leaving the EU are more uncertain as the leaving of Scotland from the UK - by the way a question that is likely to be back on the British agenda when considering the regional distribution of the referendum results. After all, 62% of Scots voted to remain in the EU. Further uncertainty exists about the status and conditions that will be imposed for the UK’s exit from the EU. Not only that some Member States are concerned that "too good" conditions for the UK could give rise to other Member States to consider an exit from the EU. Moreover, an agreement requires consensus of all Member States; otherwise the UK will only receive the status of a third country.

Apart from the Scotland issue the exit of Britain from the EU could revitalise a conflict that already seemed to be forgotten by the joint EU membership with Ireland: the Northern Ireland question, which held the UK in breath from 1969 to 1998. For territorial issues such as Northern Ireland, South Tyrol, the Basque Country, Corsica etc. the EU historically acts pacifying by curbing the centralizing forces of the respective national governments. The joint membership imposes a common regulatory framework that reduces the minorities’ impression and fears about centralization. Again, a look at the regional distribution of the referendum results shows that 55.8% of the population in Northern Ireland voted to remain in the EU, with a cleavage between Catholic and Protestant constituencies.

Interestingly, it is still a completely open question, in which direction the new British Prime Minister will negotiate the exit from the EU. In addition to the concerns of the Member States, another reason is that the supporters of the Brexit consist of at least two very different, perhaps opposing camps: on the one side are the protectionists, who want to shield the United Kingdom from immigration, terrorists, etc. by imposing national regulations that aim to reduce these globalization effects. On the other side of the Brexit supporters are the liberalizers who feel overregulated by Brussels and want to develop the United Kingdom towards an unregulated country open for global trade. Although both camps commonly supported the Brexit, and are mainly attributable to the Conservative Party, it is not clear in which direction the new British Prime Minister will go.

However, all of these aspects should not be used to draw the conclusion that the British majority did take an emotional or even irrational decision respectively that the EU is in a good shape. Certainly, David Cameron's campaign for remaining in the EU could not show how open and perhaps contested the British direction will be after the Brexit. It is not exlcuded that the Brexit will threaten the unity of the United Kingdom and finally lead to an exit only of England. Until now, however, the EU itself is also unable to provide a credible answer on its own direction, which is indicated by a declining public support for European integration and the rise of Eurosceptic parties in almost all Member States. Thematically, the EU has no answers on the most important questions about immigration, debt and (youth) unemployment. Institutionally, there is a decreasing turnout at European Parliament elections, although it has been claimed that parliamentary empowerment will overcome the democratic deficit in the EU.

Similar to the campaign of the British Prime Minister Cameron, proponents of European integration continuously point to the dangers of economic disadvantages, the loss of power and influence on the world markets as well as the risks of a more uncertain future without the EU, without being able to provide answers to the most important issues. Furthermore, the permanent usage of this formula leads to a loss of credibility, which Eurosceptic parties and movements understand to exploit for their anti-campaigns. When anti-campaigns do not need to specify their own direction under these conditions, they can have success with an umbrella function for different disappointed camps. The many surveys that have been carried out in the UK in the wake of the referendum could not predict the outcome, but they revealed a significant difference between supporters and opponents of a Brexit: compared to the opponents, the Brexit proponents had very stable views and preferences. Hence, it will take more to regain credibility and support for European integration."

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