No country for neophytes: Angela Merkel will win Germany again

"(...)  The chances that Merkel’s party, together with the Free Democrats, will win a majority of seats in the September election, according to our forecast, are 92 percent. Likewise, the chances that she could do so with the left-of-center Greens are 86 percent. These forecasts come from a prediction formula called the “Chancellor Model” that we have used with much success in the last four national elections in Germany. (...)"