(2017):
Multi-Level Electoral Politics. Beyond the Second-Order Election Model.
Oxford:
Oxford University Press.
[Comparative Politics]
more
Prof. Thomas Gschwend, Ph.D.
Project director
gschwend [at] uni-mannheim.de
Phone:
+49-621-181-2087
Fax:
+49-621-181-2845
Phone:
+49-621-181-2842Postal Address
University Mannheim, MZES
68131
Mannheim
Germany
Visiting Address
University Mannheim, MZES
A5, 6
Building B
Room:220
68159
Mannheim
Research Interests
- Public Opinion
- Comparative Politics
- Political Psychology
- Political Methodology
Projects
B1 Conditions of Democratic Governance: Behaviour and Orientations of Citizens
B2 Contexts for Democratic Governance: Political Institutions
BI Associated Projects
RP9 B2 Contexts for Democratic Governance: Political Institutions
RP8 B1 Conditions of Democratic Governance
RP7 B2 Contexts for Democratic Governance
RP7 B3 Democratic Multi-level Governance
RP6 B1 Democracy and Citizenship
RP5 B2 Political Parties and Political Linkage
RP5 B3 The Election of Parliaments as a Coordination Problem of Parties and Voters
Publications
Monographs
Gschwend, Thomas
(2004):
Strategic Voting in Mixed-Electoral Systems.
Reutlingen:
SFG-Servicecenter Fachverlag.
[Statistik und Wissenschaft; 2]
more
Editions
Gschwend, Thomas, and Frank Schimmelfennig
(Eds.)
(2007):
Forschungsdesign in der Politikwissenschaft : Probleme - Strategien - Anwendungen.
Frankfurt am Main:
Campus.
[Mannheimer Jahrbuch für Europäische Sozialforschung; 11]
more
Gschwend, Thomas, and Frank Schimmelfennig
(Eds.)
(2007):
Research Design in Political Science: How to Practice What They Preach.
Houndmills:
Palgrave Macmillan.
more
Behnke, Joachim, Thomas Gschwend, Delia Schindler and Kai-Uwe Schnapp
(Eds.)
(2006):
Methoden der Politikwissenschaft. Neuere qualitative und quantitative Analyseverfahren.
Baden-Baden:
Nomos.
more
Journal Articles
Rittmann, Oliver, Marcel Neunhoeffer and Thomas Gschwend
(In Press):
How to improve the substantive interpretation of regression results when the dependent variable is logged.
Political Science Research and Methods, (publ. online before print).
more
Behrens, Lion, Dominic Nyhuis and Thomas Gschwend
(2024):
Political ambition and opposition legislative review: Bill scrutiny as an intra-party signalling device.
European Journal of Political Research, 63, issue 1, pp. 66-88.
more
Arnold, Christian, Benjamin G. Engst and Thomas Gschwend
(2023):
Scaling Court Decisions with Citation Networks.
Journal of Law and Courts, 11, issue 1, pp. 25-44.
more
Gschwend, Thomas, Oliver Rittmann and Lisa-Marie Werner
(2023):
Zwischen Wahlkreisreduzierung und Bürgernähe: Zur aktuellen Reformdiskussion des Wahlrechts in Baden-Württemberg.
Zeitschrift für Parlamentsfragen (ZParl), 54, issue 3, pp. 611-624.
more
Rittmann, Oliver, Marie-Lou Sohnius and Thomas Gschwend
(2023):
Candidate awareness in mixed-member electoral systems: A data-driven approach.
Electoral Studies, 86, (article no. 102700), pp. 1-13.
more
Behrens, Lion, Dominic Nyhuis and Thomas Gschwend
(2022):
Constructive and destructive legislative review: The government-opposition divide in parliamentary oversight.
The Journal of Politics, 85, issue 1, pp. 223-239.
more
Gschwend, Thomas, Klara Müller, Simon Munzert, Marcel Neunhoeffer and Lukas Stoetzer
(2022):
The Zweitstimme Model: A Dynamic Forecast of the 2021 German Federal Election.
PS: Political Science and Politics, 55, issue 1, pp. 85-90.
more
Sohnius, Marie-Lou, Thomas Gschwend and Oliver Rittmann
(2022):
Welche Auswirkungen haben größere Wahlkreise auf das Politische Verhalten? Ein empirischer Beitrag zur Wahlrechtsreform.
Politische Vierteljahresschrift, 63, issue 4, pp. 685-701.
more
Bol, Damien, Thomas Gschwend, Thomas Zittel and Steffen Zittlau
(2021):
The Importance of Personal Vote Intentions for the Responsiveness of Legislators: A Field Experiment.
European Journal of Political Research, 60, issue 2, pp. 455-473.
more
Dentler, Klara, Thomas Gschwend and David Hünlich
(2021):
A swing vote from the ethnic backstage: The role of German American isolationist tradition for Trump’s 2016 victory.
Electoral Studies, 71, (article no. 102309).
more
Bahnsen, Oke, Thomas Gschwend and Lukas F. Stötzer
(2020):
How do coalition signals shape voting behavior? Revealing the mediating role of coalition expectations.
Electoral Studies, 66, issue August 2020, (article no. 102166).
more
Bowler, Shaun, Thomas Gschwend and Indridi H. Indridason
(2020):
Coalition Policy Perceptions.
The Journal of Politics, 82, issue 4, pp. 1458-1473.
more
Crabtree, Charles, Matt Golder, Thomas Gschwend and Indridi H. Indridason
(2020):
It Is Not Only What You Say, It Is Also How You Say It: The Strategic Use of Campaign Sentiment.
The Journal of Politics, 82, issue 3, pp. 1044-1060.
more
Engst, Benjamin G., Thomas Gschwend and Sebastian Sternberg
(2020):
Die Besetzung des Bundesverfassungsgerichts. Ein Spiegelbild gesellschaftlicher Präferenzen.
Politische Vierteljahresschrift, 61, issue 1, pp. 39-60.
more
Neunhoeffer, Marcel, Thomas Gschwend, Simon Munzert and Lukas Stoetzer
(2020):
Ein Ansatz zur Vorhersage der Erststimmenanteile bei Bundestagswahlen.
Politische Vierteljahresschrift, 61, issue 1, pp. 111-113.
more
Rheault, Ludovic, André Blais, John H. Aldrich and Thomas Gschwend
(2020):
Understanding people's choice when they have two votes.
Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties, 30, issue 4, pp. 466-483.
more
Lehrer, Roni, Sebastian Juhl and Thomas Gschwend
(2019):
The Wisdom of Crowds Design for Sensitive Survey Questions.
Electoral Studies, 57, pp. 99-109.
more
Stötzer, Lukas F., Marcel Neunhoeffer, Thomas Gschwend, Simon Munzert and Sebastian Sternberg
(2019):
Forecasting Elections in Multiparty Systems: A Bayesian Approach Combining Polls and Fundamentals.
Political Analysis, 27, issue 2, pp. 255-262.
more
Gschwend, Thomas, Sebastian Juhl and Roni Lehrer
(2018):
Die "Sonntagsfrage", soziale Erwünschtheit und die AfD: Wie alternative Messmethoden der Politikwissenschaft weiterhelfen können.
Politische Vierteljahresschrift, 59, issue 3, pp. 493-519.
more
Gschwend, Thomas, and Thomas Zittel
(2018):
Who brings home the pork? Parties and the role of localness in committee assignments in mixed-member proportional systems.
Party Politics, 24, issue 5, pp. 488-500.
more
Engst, Benjamin G., Thomas Gschwend, Nils Schaks, Sebastian Sternberg and Caroline Wittig
(2017):
Zum Einfluss der Parteinähe auf das Abstimmungsverhalten der Bundesverfassungsrichter - eine quantitative Untersuchung.
JuristenZeitung, 72, issue 17, pp. 816-826.
more
Gschwend, Thomas, and Helmut Norpoth
(2017):
Machtwechsel in Sicht? Die Vorhersage des Kanzlermodells für die Bundestagswahl 2017.
Politische Vierteljahresschrift, 58, issue 3, pp. 392-406.
more
Gschwend, Thomas, Michael F. Meffert and Lukas F. Stötzer
(2017):
Weighting Parties and Coalitions: How Coalition Signals Influence Voting Behavior.
The Journal of Politics, 79, issue 2, pp. 642-655.
more
Munzert, Simon, Lukas F. Stötzer, Thomas Gschwend, Marcel Neunhoeffer and Sebastian Sternberg
(2017):
Zweitstimme.org. Ein strukturell-dynamisches Vorhersagemodell für Bundestagswahlen.
Politische Vierteljahresschrift, 58, issue 3, pp. 418-441.
more
Norpoth, Helmut, and Thomas Gschwend
(2017):
Chancellor Model Predicts a Change of the Guards.
PS: Political Science & Politics, 50, issue 3, pp. 686-688.
more
Gschwend, Thomas, Lukas F. Stötzer and Steffen Zittlau
(2016):
What drives rental votes? How coalitions signals facilitate strategic coalition voting.
Electoral Studies , 44, issue December, pp. 293-306.
more
Gschwend, Thomas, and Thomas Zittel
(2015):
Do constituency candidates matter in German Federal Elections? The personal vote as an interactive process.
Electoral Studies, 39, issue September, pp. 338-349.
more
Sternberg, Sebastian, Thomas Gschwend, Caroline Wittig and Benjamin G. Engst
(2015):
Zum Einfluss der öffentlichen Meinung auf Entscheidungen des Bundesverfassungsgerichts: Eine Analyse von abstrakten Normenkontrollen sowie Bund-Länder-Streitigkeiten 1974 – 2010.
Politische Vierteljahresschrift, 56, issue 4, pp. 570-598.
more
Stötzer, Lukas F., Steffen Zittlau, Thomas Gschwend and Tobias Witt
(2015):
Leihstimmen im Bundestagswahljahr 2013.
Journal of Political Psychology, 4, issue 1, pp. 88-107.
more
Lo, James, Sven-Oliver Proksch and Thomas Gschwend
(2014):
A Common Left-Right Scale for Voters and Parties in Europe.
Political Analysis, 22, issue 2, pp. 205-223.
more
Norpoth, Helmut, and Thomas Gschwend
(2013):
Chancellor Model Picks Merkel in 2013 German Election.
Political Science & Politics, 46, issue 3, pp. 481-482.
more
Gschwend, Thomas, and Michael F. Meffert
(2011):
Polls, Coalition Signals, and Strategic Voting: An Experimental Investigation of Perceptions and Effect.
European Journal of Political Research, 50, issue 5, pp. 636-667.
more
Meffert, Michael F., Sascha Huber, Thomas Gschwend and Franz Urban Pappi
(2011):
More than wishful thinking: Causes and consequences of voters electoral expectations about parties and coalitions.
Electoral Studies, 30, issue 4, pp. 804-815.
more
Meffert, Michael F., and Thomas Gschwend
(2011):
Polls, coalition signals and strategic voting: An experimental investigation of perceptions and effects.
European Journal of Political Research, 50, issue 5, pp. 636-667.
more
Bräuninger, Thomas, Thomas Gschwend and Susumu Shikano
(2010):
Sachpolitik oder Parteipolitik? Eine Bestimmung des Parteidrucks im Bundesrat mittles bayesianischer Methoden.
Politische Vierteljahresschrift, 51, issue 2, pp. 223-249.
more
Hönnige, Christoph, and Thomas Gschwend
(2010):
Das Bundesverfassungsgericht im politischen System der BRD – ein unbekanntes Wesen?.
Politische Vierteljahresschrift, 51, issue 3, pp. 507-530.
more
Meffert, Michael F., and Thomas Gschwend
(2010):
Strategic Coalition Voting: Evidence from Austria.
Electoral Studies, 29, issue 3, pp. 339-349.
more
Norpoth, Helmut, and Thomas Gschwend
(2010):
The Chancellor Model: Forecasting German Elections.
International Journal of Forecasting, 26, issue 1, pp. 42-53.
more
Elff, Martin, Thomas Gschwend and Johnston Ron
(2008):
Ignoramus, Ignorabimus? On Uncertainty in Ecological Inference.
Political Analysis, 16, issue 1, pp. 70-92.
more
Gschwend, Thomas, and Marc Hooghe
(2008):
Should I Stay or Should I Go? An Experimental Study on Voter Responses to Pre-Electoral Coalitions.
European Journal of Political Research, 47, issue 5, pp. 556-577.
more
Zittel, Thomas, and Thomas Gschwend
(2008):
Individualised Constituency Campaigns in Mixed-Member Electoral Systems: Candidates in the 2005 German Elections.
West European Politics, 31, issue 5, pp. 879-1003.
more
Gschwend, Thomas
(2007):
Berliner Abgeordnetenhauswahlen 1979 bis 2001: keine Testwahlen für die Bundesebene.
Zeitschrift für Parlamentsfragen , 38, issue 3, pp. 531-540.
more
Gschwend, Thomas
(2007):
Institutional Incentives for Strategic Voting and Party System Change in Portugal.
Portuguese Journal of Social Science, 6, issue 1, pp. 15-31.
more
Gschwend, Thomas
(2007):
Ticket-splitting and strategic voting under mixed electoral rules: Evidence from Germany.
European Journal of Political Research, 46, issue 1, pp. 1-23.
more
Lavine, Howard, and Thomas Gschwend
(2007):
Issues, Parties and Character: The Moderating Role of Ideological Thinking on Candidate Evaluation.
British Journal of Political Science, 37, issue 1, pp. 139-163.
more
Zittel, Thomas, and Thomas Gschwend
(2007):
Individualisierte Wahlkämpfe im Wahlkreis. Eine Analyse am Beispiel des Bundestagswahlkampfes von 2005.
Politische Vierteljahresschrift, 48, issue 2, pp. 293-321.
more
Gschwend, Thomas, and Henk van der Kolk
(2006):
Split Ticket Voting in Mixed Member Proportional Systems: The Hypothetical Case of The Netherlands.
Acta Politica, 41, issue 2, pp. 163-179.
more
Wüst, Andreas M., Hermann Schmitt, Thomas Gschwend and Thomas Zittel
(2006):
Candidates in the 2005 Bundestag Election: Mode of Candidacy, Campaigning and Issues.
German Politics, 15, issue 4, pp. 420-438.
more
Broscheid, Andreas, and Thomas Gschwend
(2005):
Zur statistischen Analyse von Vollerhebungen.
Politische Vierteljahresschrift, 46, issue 1, pp. O-16 – O-26.
more
Gschwend, Thomas
(2005):
Analyzing Quota Sample Data and the Peer-Review Process.
French Politics, 3, issue 1, pp. 88-91.
more
Gschwend, Thomas, and Dirk Leuffen
(2005):
Divided We Stand - Unified We Govern? Cohabitation and Regime Voting in the 2002 French Elections.
British Journal of Political Science, 35, pp. 691-712.
more
Gschwend, Thomas, and Helmut Norpoth
(2005):
Prognosemodell auf dem Prüfstand: Die Bundestagswahl 2005.
Politische Vierteljahresschrift, 46, issue 4, pp. 682-688.
more
Gschwend, Thomas
(2003):
Iterative EI-Schätzungen und das interne Konsistenzproblem.
Wirtschaft und Statistik, issue 3, pp. 262-267.
more
Gschwend, Thomas, and Helmut Norpoth
(2003):
Knapp aber vorhersehbar: Schröders Wahlsieg.
FORUM - Forschung Universität Mannheim, pp. 10-13.
more
Gschwend, Thomas, Ron Johnston and Charles Pattie
(2003):
Split-Ticket Patterns in Mixed-Member Proportional Election Systems: Estimates and Analyses of their Spatial Variation at the German Federal Election, 1998.
British Journal of Political Science, 33, pp. 109-127.
more
Norpoth, Helmut, and Thomas Gschwend
(2003):
Against all Odds?: The Red-Green Victory.
German Politics and Society, issue 21, pp. 15-34.
more
Book Chapters
Nyhuis, Dominic, Tobias Ringwald, Oliver Rittmann, Thomas Gschwend and Rainer Stiefelhagen
(2022):
Automated video analysis for social science research.
Pp. 386-398 in:
Uwe Engel, Anabel Quan-Haase, Sunny Liu, Lars E. Lyberg
(Eds.)
Handbook of computational social science, vol. 2: Data science, statistical modeling, and machine learning methods.
New York:
Routledge.
more
Gschwend, Thomas, and Michael F. Meffert
(2017):
Strategic Voting.
Pp. 339-366 in:
Kai Arzheimer, Jocelyn Evans, Michael S. Lewis-Beck
(Eds.)
The SAGE Handbook of Electoral Behaviour.
London:
Sage.
more
Bytzek, Evelyn, Thomas Gschwend, Sascha Huber, Eric Linhart and Michael F. Meffert
(2012):
Koalitionssignale und ihre Wirkungen auf Wahlentscheidungen.
Pp. 393-418 in:
Rüdiger Schmitt-Beck
(Ed.)
Wählen in Deutschland.
Baden-Baden:
Nomos.
more
Gschwend, Thomas, and Thomas Zittel
(2012):
Machen Wahlkreiskandidaten einen Unterschied? Die Persönlichkeitswahl als interaktiver Prozess.
Pp. 371-392 in:
Rüdiger Schmitt-Beck
(Ed.)
Wählen in Deutschland.
Baden-Baden:
Nomos Verlag.
more
Gschwend, Thomas, and Thomas Zittel
(2011):
Machen Wahlkreiskandidaten einen Unterschied? Die Persönlichkeitswahl als interaktiver Prozess.
Pp. 371-392 in:
Wählen in Deutschland.
Baden-Baden:
Nomos.
more
Hooghe, Marc, Sofie Marien and Thomas Gschwend
(2011):
Gathering Counter-Factual Evidence: An Experimental Study on Voters’ Responses to Pre-Electoral Coalitions.
Pp. 413-440 in:
Bernhard Kittel, Wolfgang J. Luhan, Rebecca B. Morton
(Eds.)
Experimental Political Science: Principles and Practices.
Basingstoke:
Palgrave Macmillan.
more
Meffert, Michael F., and Thomas Gschwend
(2011):
Experimental Triangulation of Coalition Signals: Varying Designs, Converging Results.
Pp. 249-283 in:
Bernhard Kittel, Wolfgang J. Luhan, Rebecca B. Morton
(Eds.)
Experimental Political Science: Principles and Practices.
Basingstoke:
Palgrave Macmillan.
more
Blais, André, and Thomas Gschwend
(2010):
Strategic Defection across Elections, Parties, and Voters.
Pp. 176-196 in:
Christopher Anderson, Russell Dalton
(Eds.)
Citizens, Context, and Choice: How the Political Context Shapes Electoral Behavior.
Oxford:
Oxford University Press.
more
Gschwend, Thomas
(2009):
District Magnitude and the Comparative Study of Strategic Voting.
Pp. 289-307 in:
Hans-Dieter Klingemann
(Ed.)
The Comparative Study of Electoral Systems.
Oxford:
Oxford University Press.
more
Huber, Sascha, Thomas Gschwend, Michael F. Meffert and Franz Urban Pappi
(2009):
Erwartungsbildung über den Wahlausgang und ihr Einfluss auf die Wahlentscheidung.
Pp. 561-584 in:
Oscar W. Gabriel, Bernhard Weßels, Jürgen W. Falter
(Eds.)
Wahlen und Wähler. Analysen aus Anlass der Bundestagswahl 2005.
Wiesbaden:
VS Verlag für Sozialwissenschaften.
more
Meffert, Michael F., and Thomas Gschwend
(2009):
Strategisches Wählen in Mehrparteiensystemen: ein Gruppenexperiment.
Pp. 107-132 in:
Eric Linhart, Susumu Shikano
(Eds.)
Parteienwettbewerb, Wählerverhalten und Koalitionsbildung. Festschrift zum 70. Geburtstag von Franz Urban Pappi.
Baden-Baden:
Nomos.
more
Gschwend, Thomas
(2008):
Abgeordnetenhauswahlen sind keine Bundestagswahlen. Oder doch? Erfahrungsbericht aus Berlin.
Pp. 93-120 in:
Kerstin Völkl, Kai-Uwe Schnapp, Everhard Holtmann, Oscar W. Gabriel
(Eds.)
Wähler und Landtagswahlen in der Bundesrepublik Deutschland.
Baden-Baden:
Nomos.
more
Gschwend, Thomas
(2008):
Studying Contamination Effects in Multi-Level Systems of Governance: First Thoughts about Hypotheses and Research Design.
Pp. 229-240 in:
Hermann Schmitt
(Ed.)
The Multilevel Electoral System of the EU.
Mannheim.
more
Gschwend, Thomas, and Frank Schimmelfennig
(2007):
Conclusion: Lessons for the Dialogue between Theory and Data.
Pp. 216-225 in:
Thomas Gschwend, Frank Schimmelfennig
(Eds.)
Research Design in Political Science. How to Practice What They Preach.
Houndmills:
Palgrave Macmillan.
more
Gschwend, Thomas, and Frank Schimmelfennig
(2007):
Forschungsdesign in der Politikwissenschaft: Ein Dialog zwischen Theorie und Daten.
Pp. 13-35 in:
Thomas Gschwend, Frank Schimmelfennig
(Eds.)
Forschungsdesign in der Politikwissenschaft. Probleme - Strategien - Anwendungen.
Frankfurt/Main:
Campus Verlag.
more
Gschwend, Thomas, and Frank Schimmelfennig
(2007):
Introduction: Designing Research in Political Science - A Dialogue between Theory and Data.
Pp. 1-18 in:
Thomas Gschwend, Frank Schimmelfennig
(Eds.)
Research Design in Political Science. How to Practice What They Preach..
Houndmills:
Palgrave Macmillan.
more
Gschwend, Thomas, and Frank Schimmelfennig
(2007):
Lehren für den Dialog zwischen Theorie und Daten.
Pp. 323-336 in:
Thomas Gschwend, Frank Schimmelfennig
(Eds.)
Forschungsdesign in der Politikwissenschaft. Probleme - Strategien - Anwendungen.
Frankfurt/Main:
Campus Verlag.
more
Gschwend, Thomas
(2006):
Ökologische Inferenz.
Pp. 227-237 in:
Joachim Behnke, Thomas Gschwend, Delia Schindler, Kai-Uwe Schnapp
(Eds.)
Methoden der Politikwissenschaft. Neuere qualitative und quantitative Analyseverfahren.
Baden-Baden:
Nomos.
more
Schnapp, Kai-Uwe, Delia Schindler, Thomas Gschwend and Joachim Behnke
(2006):
Qualitative und Quantitative Zugänge: Eine integrative Perspektive.
Pp. 11-26 in:
Joachim Behnke, Thomas Gschwend, Delia Schindler, Kai-Uwe Schnapp
(Eds.)
Methoden der Politikwissenschaft. Neuere qualitative und quantitative Analyseverfahren.
Baden-Baden:
Nomos.
more
Norpoth, Helmut, and Thomas Gschwend
(2005):
Mit Rot-Grün ins Schwarze getroffen: Prognosemodell besteht Feuertaufe.
Pp. 371-387 in:
Jürgen W. Falter, Oscar W. Gabriel, Bernhard Weßels
(Eds.)
Wahlen und Wähler. Analysen aus Anlass der Bundestagswahl 2002.
Wiesbaden:
Verlag für Sozialwissenschaften.
more
Pappi, Franz Urban, and Thomas Gschwend
(2005):
Partei- und Koalitionspräferenzen der Wähler bei den Bundestagswahlen 1998 und 2002.
Pp. 284-305 in:
Jürgen W. Falter, Oscar W. Gabriel, Bernhard Weßels
(Eds.)
Wahlen und Wähler.
Wiesbaden:
Verlag für Sozialwissenschaften.
more
Gschwend, Thomas, and Franz Urban Pappi
(2004):
Stimmensplitting und Koalitionswahl [Ticket-Splitting and Coalition Voting].
Pp. 167-183 in:
Frank Brettschneider, Edeltraud Roller
(Eds.)
Bundestagswahl 2002 [German Federal Election 2002].
Wiesbaden:
VS Verlag für Sozialwissenschaften.
more
Gschwend, Thomas, and Dirk Leuffen
(2004):
Stuck Between a Rock and a Hard Place: Electoral Dilemmas and Turnout in the 2002 French Legislative Elections.
Pp. 155-177 in:
Michael S. Lewis-Beck
(Ed.)
The French Voter: Before and After the 2002 Elections.
Houndmills, Basingstoke:
Palgrave.
more
Gschwend, Thomas
(2003):
Statistical Control.
Pp. 1076 in:
Michael S. Lewis-Beck, Alan Bryman, Tim Futing Liao
(Eds.)
Encyclopedia of Social Science Research Methods.
Newbury Park, CA:
Sage.
more
Norpoth, Helmut, and Thomas Gschwend
(2003):
Politbarometer und Wahlprognosen: Die Kanzlerfrage..
Pp. 109-123 in:
Politbarometer.
Opladen:
Leske + Budrich.
more
Gschwend, Thomas, and Helmut Norpoth
(2001):
'Wenn am nächsten Sonntag ...': Ein Prognosemodell für Bundestagswahlen.
Pp. 473-499 in:
Hans-Dieter Klingemann, Max Kaase
(Eds.)
Wahlen und Wähler: Analysen aus Anlass der Bundestagswahl 1998.
Wiesbaden:
Westdeutscher Verlag.
more
Gschwend, Thomas, and Helmut Norpoth
(2000):
Soll und Haben: Die deutsche Wählerschaft rechnet mit den Parteien ab.
Pp. 389 - 409 in:
Markus Klein, Wolfgang Jagodzinski, Ekkehard Mochmann, Dieter Ohr
(Eds.)
50 Jahre Empirische Wahlforschung in Deutschland. Entwicklung, Befunde, Perspektiven, Daten.
Wiesbaden:
Westdeutscher Verlag.
more
MZES Working Papers
Norpoth, Helmut, and Thomas Gschwend
(2004):
Mit Rot-Grün ins Schwarze getroffen: Prognosemodell besteht Feuertaufe.
Mannheim
[Mannheimer Zentrum für Europäische Sozialforschung: Arbeitspapiere; 75]
more
Gschwend, Thomas
(2003):
Ticket-Splitting and Strategic Voting in Mixed Electoral Systems.
Mannheim
[Mannheimer Zentrum für Europäische Sozialforschung: Arbeitspapiere; 61]
more
Gschwend, Thomas, and Dirk Leuffen
(2003):
When Voters Choose Regimes: The Issue of Cohabitation in the French Elections of 2002.
Mannheim
[Mannheimer Zentrum für Europäische Sozialforschung: Arbeitspapiere; 63]
more
Papers / Reports
Gschwend, Thomas
(2005):
Ticket-Splitting and Strategic Voting under Mixed Electoral Rules: Evidence from Germany.
Mannheim
[SFB 504 discussion paper]
more
Gschwend, Thomas
(2004):
Comparative Politics of Strategic Voting: A Hierarchy of Electoral Systems.
Mannheim
[SFB 504 discussion paper]
more
Johnston, Ron, Thomas Gschwend and Charles Pattie
(2004):
On Estimates of Split-Ticket Voting: EI and EMax.
Mannheim
[SFB 504 discussion paper]
more
Broscheid, Andreas, and Thomas Gschwend
(2003):
Augäpfel, Murmeltiere und Bayes: Zur Auswertung stochastischer Daten aus Vollerhebungen.
[MPIfG Working Paper]
more
Web Publications
Sohnius, Marie-Lou, Benjamin G. Engst and Thomas Gschwend
(2020):
Kontinuität am Bundesverfassungsgericht? Wie die Öffentlichkeit Voßkuhles und Masings Nachfolger bewertet,
RechtsEmpirie Blog, 2020 (13.05.2020)
more
Gschwend, Thomas, Marcel Neunhoeffer and Marie-Lou Sohnius
(2019):
Prof. Dr. parl. und Dr. noparl. - Vier Buchstaben mit großem Effekt. Falscher Professorentitel macht mit großer Wahrscheinlichkeit einen Unterschied,
DVPW Blog, 2019 more
Gschwend, Thomas, Thomas König and Marcel Neunhoeffer
(2018):
Wie das bayerische Wahlrecht die CSU begünstigt,
Zeit Online, 2018 more
Gschwend, Thomas, and Roni Lehrer
(2017):
Die Minderheitsregierung ist besser als ihr Ruf,
Spiegel Online, 2017 more
Gschwend, Thomas, Simon Munzert, Marcel Neunhoeffer, Sebastian Sternberg and Lukas F. Stötzer
(2017):
New German election forecast: Merkel’s party will win but lose seats,
The Washington Post: Monkey Cage more
Norpoth, Helmut, and Thomas Gschwend
(2017):
No country for neophytes: Angela Merkel will win Germany again,
The Hill, http://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-blog/international-affairs/346406-germany-is-no-country-for-neophytes-angela-merkel more
Conference Presentations
Engst, Benjamin, Thomas Gschwend, Christoph Hönnige and Sylvain Brouard
(2022):
Who should be selected to the highest courts? Evidence from survey experiments in France, Germany and the United States.
[12th Annual Conference of the European Political Science Association, Prague, June 23rd to June 26th, 2022]
more
Engst, Benjamin G., Thomas Gschwend and Christoph Hönnige
(2022):
Who should be selected to the highest courts? Evidence from Survey Experiments in France, Germany and the United States.
[ECPR General Conference, Innsbruck, August 22nd to August 26th, 2022]
more
Sohnius, Marie-Lou, Thomas Gschwend and Oliver Rittmann
(2022):
Unintended Consequences of Increasing Electoral Districts? Evidence From Germany.
[Tagung des DVPW-Arbeitskreises "Wahlen und politische Einstellungen", Berlin, May 19th to May 20th, 2022]
more
Adendorf, Anna, Ines Rehbein, Oke Bahnsen, Thomas Gschwend, Simone Paolo Ponzetto and Lukas F. Stötzer
(2021):
Who wants to go with whom? Identifying coalition signals in newspaper articles using transfer learning.
[11th Annual Meeting of the European Political Science Association, (virtual conference), June 24th to June 25th, 2021]
more
Adendorf, Anna, Ines Rehbein, Oke Bahnsen, Thomas Gschwend, Simone Paolo Ponzetto and Lukas F. Stötzer
(2021):
Who wants to go with whom? Identifying coalition signals in newspaper articles using transfer learning.
[28. Wissenschaftlicher Kongress der Deutschen Vereinigung für Politikwissenschaft, (virtual conference), September 14th to September 16th, 2021]
more
Behrens, Lion, Dominic Nyhuis and Thomas Gschwend
(2021):
Coalition Policymaking and Opposition Legislative Review: Collaboration, Bill Obstruction, and Issue-Ownership.
[11th Annual Meeting of the European Political Science Association, (virtual conference), June 24th to June 25th, 2021]
more
Engst, Benjamin G., David Grundmans and Thomas Gschwend
(2021):
Give them the word, they sharpen the sword - How high courts use language to exert political and societal power.
[15th General Conference of the ECPR, (virtual conference), August 30th to September 03rd, 2021]
more
Engst, Benjamin, David M. Grundmanns and Thomas Gschwend
(2021):
Give them the word, they sharpen the sword - How high courts use language to exert political and societal power.
[11th Annual Meeting of the European Political Science Association, (virtual conference), June 24th to June 25th, 2021]
more
Gschwend, Thomas, Marcel Neunhoeffer and Oliver Rittmann
(2021):
Simulating Quantities of Interest when the Dependent Variable is Logged.
[1. PolMeth Europe Conference, (virtual conference), March 17th to March 19th, 2021]
more
Engst, Benjamin G., and Thomas Gschwend
(2020):
Attitudes on Judicial Independence: A Discrete Choice Experiment in Four EU Member States.
[10th Annual Conference of the European Political Science Association, (virtual conference), June 18th to June 20th, 2020]
more
Arnold, Christian, Benjamin G. Engst and Thomas Gschwend
(2019):
Scaling Lower Court Decisions.
[Conference on Data Science and Law, Zurich, June 07th to June 08th, 2019]
more
Behrens, Lion, Dominic Nyhuis and Thomas Gschwend
(2019):
Opposition strategies in legislative review: Tracing the strategic use of legislative amendments using syntax-aware automated text analysis.
[9th Annual Conference of the European Political Science Association, Belfast, June 20th to June 22nd, 2019]
more
Engst, Benjamin G., David M. Grundmanns and Thomas Gschwend
(2019):
Judicial Positions on Political Reform. Designing common policy scores from judicial text.
[9th Annual Conference of the European Political Science Association, Belfast, June 20th to June 22nd, 2019]
more
Engst, Benjamin G., Thomas Gschwend, Christoph Hönnige and Caroline Wittig
(2019):
The Constitutional Court Database. Conceptualizing a relational database.
[Workshop "Multi-User Databases on Judicial Decision-Making", Florence, October 10th to October 11th, 2019]
more
Nyhuis, Dominic, Lion Behrens, Thomas Gschwend, Tobias Ringwald, M. Saquib Sarfraz and Rainer Stiefelhagen
(2019):
Beyond text as data: Automated video analysis for research on legislative politics.
[9th Annual Conference of the European Political Science Association, Belfast, June 20th to June 22nd, 2019]
more
Nyhuis, Dominic, Lion Behrens, Thomas Gschwend, Tobias Ringwald, M. Saquib Sarfraz and Rainer Stiefelhagen
(2019):
Beyond text as data: Computer vision in political research.
[Political Annual Methodology Conference, Warwick, January 11th, 2019]
more
Nyhuis, Dominic, Lion Behrens, Thomas Gschwend, Tobias Ringwald, M. Saquib Sarfraz and Rainer Stiefelhagen
(2019):
Individual salience attributions in the US House of Representatives: Evidence from an automated analysis of parliamentary video recordings.
[77th Annual Conference of the Midwest Political Science Association (MPSA), Chicago, IL, April 04th to April 07th, 2019]
more
Gschwend, Thomas, Indridi H. Indridason and Lukas F. Stötzer
(2018):
Pre-Electoral Coalition Strategies in Multiparty Systems.
[8th Annual Conference of the European Political Science Association, Vienna, June 21st to June 23rd, 2018]
more
Stötzer, Lukas F., Indridi I. Indridason and Thomas Gschwend
(2018):
Pre-Electoral Coalition Strategies in Multiparty Systems.
[27. Wissenschaftliche Kongress der Deutschen Vereinigung für Politikwissenschaft, Frankfurt am Main, September 25th to September 28th, 2018]
more
Engst, Benjamin G., Thomas Gschwend and Sebastian Sternberg
(2017):
Public Support for Judicial Nominations: Evidence from a Discrete-Choice Experiment.
[7th Annual General Conference of the European Political Science Association, Milan, June 22nd to June 24th, 2017]
more
Stötzer, Lukas F., Simon Munzert, Thomas Gschwend, Marcel Neunhoeffer and Sebastian Sternberg
(2017):
Forecasting Elections in Multi-party Systems: A Backwards Random-walk Approach.
[11th ECPR General Conference, Oslo, September 06th to September 09th, 2017]
more
Stötzer, Lukas F., Simon Munzert, Thomas Gschwend, Marcel Neunhoeffer and Sebastian Sternberg
(2017):
Forecasting Elections in Multi-party Systems: A Backwards Random-walk Approach.
[7th Annual General Conference of the European Political Science Association, Milan, June 22nd to June 24th, 2017]
more
Stötzer, Lukas F., Simon Munzert, Thomas Gschwend, Marcel Neunhoeffer and Sebastian Sternberg
(2017):
Forecasting Elections in Multi-party Systems: A Backwards Random-walk Approach.
[Invited Talk, University of Amsterdam, September 14th, 2017]
more
Crabtree, Charles, Matt Golder, Thomas Gschwend and Indridi H. Indridason
(2016):
Campaign Sentiment in European Manifestos.
[6th Annual General Conference of the European Political Science Association, Brussels, June 23rd to June 25th, 2016]
more
Gschwend, Thomas, Sebastian Sternberg and Steffen Zittlau
(2016):
Are Judges Political Animals After All? Quasi-experimental Evidence from the German Federal Constitutional Court.
[6th Annual General Conference of the European Political Science Association, Brussels, June 23rd to June 25th, 2016]
more
Gschwend, Thomas, Sebastian Sternberg and Steffen Zittlau
(2016):
Are Judges Political Animals after All? Quasi-Experimental Evidence from the German Federal Constitutional Court.
[First Conference on Empirical Legal Studies in Europe (CELSE), University of Amsterdam, June 21st to June 22nd, 2016]
more
Gschwend, Thomas
(2016):
Strategic and Sincere Voting in Multi-level Systems.
[Workshop Making Electoral Democracy Work, Montreal, Kanada, June 17th to June 18th, 2016]
more
Gschwend, Thomas
(2016):
Strategic and Sincere Voting in Multi-level Systems.
[6th Annual General Conference of the European Political Science Association, Brussels, June 23rd to June 25th, 2016]
more
Zittel, Thomas, and Thomas Gschwend
(2016):
Who brings home the pork? Committee Assignments under Germany's Mixed System.
[44th ECPR Joint Sessions of Workshops, Pisa, April 24th to April 28th, 2016]
more
Bol, Damien, Thomas Gschwend, Thomas Zittel and Steffen Zittlau
(2015):
The Electoral Source of Good Government: A Field Experiment on German MPs.
[5th Annual General Conference of the European Political Science Association, Vienna, June 25th to June 27th, 2015]
more
Gschwend, Thomas, Lukas F. Stötzer and Steffen Zittlau
(2015):
Valence Campaigning in the 2008 US Congressional Elections.
[111th Annual Conference of the American Political Science Association, San Francisco, September 03rd to September 06th, 2015]
more
Gschwend, Thomas, and Thomas Zittel
(2015):
Who brings home the pork? The role of electoral context and localness in assigning committee seats in the German Bundestag.
[9th ECPR General Conference, Université de Montréal, August 26th to August 29th, 2015]
more
Gschwend, Thomas, and Thomas Zittel
(2015):
Who brings home the pork? The role of electoral context and localness in assigning committee seats in the German Bundestag.
[111th Annual Conference of the American Political Science Association, San Francisco, CA, September 03rd to September 06th, 2015]
more
Hönnige, Christoph, Thomas Gschwend, Benjamin G. Engst and Caroline Wittig
(2015):
Constitutional Courts as Veto Players: Composition, Absorption and Decisions at the German Court.
[9th ECPR General Conference, Université de Montréal, August 26th to August 29th, 2015]
more
Hönnige, Christoph, Benjamin G. Engst, Caroline Wittig and Thomas Gschwend
(2015):
Demand for Change: Institutional Features Empowering Judges as Policy Makers.
[73rd Annual Conference of the Midwest Political Science Association, Chicago, IL, April 16th to April 19th, 2015]
more
Indridason, Indridi H., and Thomas Gschwend
(2015):
Estimating Policy Perceptions of Party Influence on Coalition Policy Perceptions.
[5th Annual General Conference of the European Political Science Association, Vienna, June 25th to June 27th, 2015]
more
Bowler, Shaun, Thomas Gschwend and Indridi H. Indridason
(2014):
Coalition Policy Perceptions.
[4th Annual General Conference of the European Political Science Association, Edinburgh, June 19th to June 21st, 2014]
more
Engst, Benjamin G., Caroline Wittig, Christoph Hönnige and Thomas Gschwend
(2014):
Validating own Interests through Invalidating: Judges Shaping Policy.
[4th Annual General Conference of the European Political Science Association, Edinburgh, June 19th to June 21st, 2014]
more
Golder, Matt, Thomas Gschwend and Indridi H. Indridason
(2014):
Negative Campaigning in Multicandidate Primary Elections.
[4th Annual General Conference of the European Political Science Association, Edinnburgh, June 19th to June 21st, 2014]
more
Gschwend, Thomas, Lukas F. Stötzer and Steffen Zittlau
(2014):
Why don't you talk about policy? Valence campaigning in the 2008 US Congressional elections.
[4th Annual General Conference of the European Political Science Association, Edinburgh, June 19th to June 21st, 2014]
more
Hönnige, Christoph, Thomas Gschwend, Caroline Wittig and Benjamin G. Engst
(2014):
The German Constitutional Court - Conceptualizing an Innovative Database.
[110th APSA Annual Meeting 'Politics after the revolution', Washington D.C., August 28th to August 31st, 2014]
more
Hönnige, Christoph, Thomas Gschwend, Benjamin G. Engst and Caroline Wittig
(2014):
The German Constitutional Court as Veto Player - Composition, Decisions and the Absorption Hypothesis.
[23nd IPSA World Congress of Political Science, Montreal, July 19th to July 25th, 2014]
more
Blais, André, Ludovic Rheault, John H. Aldrich and Thomas Gschwend
(2013):
Understanding People's Choice When They Have Two Votes.
[Annual Conference of the Canadian Political Science Association, University of Victoria, British Columbia, June 04th to June 06th, 2013]
more
Bol, Damien, Thomas Zittel and Thomas Gschwend
(2013):
The impact of the Electoral Context on Personal Vote Strategies: A Field Experiment on German Legislators.
[7th ECPR General Conference, Sciences Po, Bordeaux, September 04th to September 07th, 2013]
more
Engst, Benjamin G., Caroline Wittig, Christoph Hönnige and Thomas Gschwend
(2013):
Courts as Veto Players: A Game Theoretic Model.
[7th ECPR General Conference, Sciences Po, Bordeaux, September 04th to September 07th, 2013]
more
Engst, Benjamin G., Caroline Wittig, Christoph Hönnige and Thomas Gschwend
(2013):
Courts as Veto Players: A Game Theoretic Model.
[41st ECPR Joint Sessions of Workshops, University of Mainz, March 11th to March 16th, 2013]
more
Golder, Matt, Thomas Gschwend and Indridi H. Indridason
(2013):
Negative Campaigning.
[3rd Annual General Conference of the European Political Science Association, Barcelona, June 20th to June 22nd, 2013]
more
Golder, Matt, Thomas Gschwend and Indridi H. Indridason
(2013):
Negative Campaigning.
[Annual Meeting of the 'Making Electoral Democracy Work Project', McGill University, Montreal, May 31st to June 01st, 2013]
more
Gschwend, Thomas, Michael Meffert and Lukas F. Stötzer
(2013):
How Coalition Signals Influence Voting Behavior.
[3rd Annual General Conference of the European Political Science Association, Barcelona, June 20th to June 22nd, 2013]
more
Gschwend, Thomas, Markus Wagner, Eva Zeglovits and Sylvia Kritzinger
(2012):
Sequencing Effekte: Links-Rechts-Positionierung und weitere Instrumententests in AUTNES.
[AUTNES, Vienna, November 08th to November 09th, 2012]
more
Gschwend, Thomas, Markus Wagner, Eva Zeglovits and Sylvia Kritzinger
(2012):
Sequencing Effekte: Links-Rechts-Positionierung und weitere Survey Experimente.
[AUTNES, Vienna, October 04th to October 05th, 2012]
more
Gschwend, Thomas
(2012):
Strategic Voting: Coalitions, Preferences and Expectations.
[AUTNES, Vienna, September 20th, 2012]
more
Gschwend, Thomas
(2012):
Strategic Voting: Coalitions, Preferences and Expectations.
[AUTNES, Vienna, October 04th to October 05th, 2012]
more
Gschwend, Thomas, and Thomas Zittel
(2011):
Do Constituency Candidates Matter in German Federal Elections? The Personal Vote as an Interactive Process.
[1st Annual General Conference of the European Political Science Association, Dublin, June 16th to June 18th, 2011]
more
Gschwend, Thomas, and Sven-Oliver Proksch
(2010):
Improving the Measurement of Policy Preferences in Surveys: Bringing the Status-Quo back in.
[REPCONG-Workshop "Policy Representation Europe", Mannheim, May 28th to May 29th, 2010]
more
Gschwend, Thomas, Matthew S. Shugart and Thomas Zittel
(2009):
Assigning Committee Seats in Mixed-Member Systems - How Important is “Localness” compared to the Mode of Election?.
[ECPR General Conference, Potsdam, September 10th to September 12th, 2009]
more
Gschwend, Thomas
(2009):
Siegt 2009 Schwarz-Gelb? Wahlprognosen per Zauberformel.
[Vortrag, Gütersloh, September 10th, 2009]
more
Gschwend, Thomas
(2009):
Über elektorale Folgen der Politikverflechtung in Mehrebenensystemen: Auswirkungen der bundespolitischen Großwetterlage und Landtagswahlen.
[Jahrestagung des Arbeitskreises "Wahlen und politische Einstellungen" der DVPW, Frankfurt am Main, May 07th to May 08th, 2009]
more
Gschwend, Thomas
(2009):
Über elektorale Folgen der Politikverflechtung in Mehrebenensystemen: Auswirkungen der bundespolitschen Großwetterlage und Landtagswahlen.
[Jahrestagung des AK Wahlen und politische Einstellungen der DVPW, Frankfurt/Main, May 07th to May 08th, 2009]
more
Meffert, Michael F., and Thomas Gschwend
(2009):
Polls, Coalition Signals, and Strategic Voting: An Experimental Investigation of Perceptions and Effects..
[8. Politicologenetmaal der Niederländisch-Flämischen Politikwissenschaftler, Berg en Dal, May 29th to May 30th, 2009]
more
Gschwend, Thomas
(2008):
Kausale Effekte von Koalitionssignalen? Experimentelle Evidenz.
[Gastvorlesung, Universität Bern, October 17th, 2008]
more
Gschwend, Thomas
(2008):
Kausale Inferenz mit Koalitionssignalen.
[Gastvorlesung, Universität Zürich, September 22nd, 2008]
more
Gschwend, Thomas
(2008):
Koalitionssignale und Wahlverhalten.
[Gastvorlesung, Universität Oldenburg, July 11th, 2008]
more
Gschwend, Thomas, Michael F. Meffert, Sascha Huber and Franz Urban Pappi
(2008):
More than Wishful Thinking: Causes and Consequences of Voter's Expectations about Election Outcomes.
[International Communication Association, Annual Meeting, Montréal, May 22nd to May 26th, 2008]
more
Gschwend, Thomas, and Michael F. Meffert
(2008):
Polls, Coalition Signals, and Strategic Voting: An Experimental Investigation of Perceptions and Effects.
[AK Wahlen, Annual Meeting, Duisburg, May 15th to May 16th, 2008]
more
Gschwend, Thomas, and Thomas Zittel
(2008):
Presentation of Country Database Issues: Germany.
[Workshop on “Electoral Systems and Party Personnel, Del Mar, CA, August 25th to August 27th, 2008]
more
Gschwend, Thomas, and Michael F. Meffert
(2008):
Strategic Coalition Voting: Evidence from Austria.
[Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association (APSA), Boston, Mass., August 28th to August 31st, 2008]
more
Gschwend, Thomas, and Michael F. Meffert
(2008):
Strategic Voting under Proportional Representation and Coalition governments: A Laboratory Experiment.
[International Society for Political Psychology, Annual Meeting, Paris, July 09th to July 12th, 2008]
more
Gschwend, Thomas
(2008):
Strategisches Wählerverhalten und Wahlsystem.
[Gastvorlesung, Universität Bamberg, November 28th, 2008]
more
Gschwend, Thomas, and Michael F. Meffert
(2008):
Strategisches Wahlverhalten in Mehrparteiensystemen: Ein Gruppenexperiment.
[AK Handlungs- und Entscheidungstheorie, DVPW, Annual Meeting, Mainz, June 27th, 2008]
more
Gschwend, Thomas
(2008):
Vorhersagen müssen keine Hexerei sein.
[Gastvorlesung Universität Darmstadt, Darmstadt, June 13th, 2008]
more
Gschwend, Thomas, and Michael F. Meffert
(2008):
Voting for Coalitions? The Role of Coalition Preferences.
[Annual Meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association, Chicago, April 03rd to April 06th, 2008]
more
Gschwend, Thomas
(2008):
X-zentriert statt x-beliebig: Zur Bedeutung von Randomisierung für Kausalanalysen der Politik- und Verwaltungsforschung.
[Gastvorlesung, Universität Konstanz, November 14th, 2008]
more
Gschwend, Thomas
(2007):
Contamination effects in multi-level systems of governance.
[The Multi–Level Electoral System of the EU, CONNEX-Conference (RG3), Villa La Collina, Cadenabbia, March 19th to March 22nd, 2007]
more
Gschwend, Thomas
(2007):
Goldoni Goes Comparative: Institutional Incentives and Vote Choice.
[Vortrag im Rahmen des Berufungsverfahrens für einen Lehrstuhl für Politikwissenschaft (professeur ordinaire) an der Université de Genève, Genf, March 08th, 2007]
more
Gschwend, Thomas, and Thomas Zittel
(2007):
Individualisierte Wahlkämpfe im Wahlkreis: Eine Analyse am Beispiel des Bundestagswahlkampfes von 2005.
[Wahlen und Repräsentation im politischen System der Bundesrepublik Deutschland, Köln, March 26th, 2007]
more
Gschwend, Thomas, and Michael F. Meffert
(2007):
Strategic Voting under Proportional Representation & Coalition Governments: A Simulation and Laboratory Experiment.
[Forschungskolloquium, Lambrecht/Pfalz, July 20th to July 21st, 2007]
more
Gschwend, Thomas, and Michael F. Meffert
(2007):
Strategic Voting under Proportional Representation and Coalition Governments: A Case for Experimental Triangulation.
[International Conference on Experimental Methods in Political Science, Brüssel, December 14th, 2007]
more
Gschwend, Thomas
(2007):
Vorhersagen müssen keine Hexerei sein: Ein sozialwissenschaftliches Prognosemodell für Bundestagswahlen.
[Seminar, Universität Darmstadt, June 15th, 2007]
more
Gschwend, Thomas, and Marc Hooghe
(2007):
Voter Responses to Pre-Electoral Coalitions in Belgium. Results from an Experimental Study.
[International Conference on Experimental Methods in Political Science, Brüssel, December 14th, 2007]
more
Gschwend, Thomas, and Michael F. Meffert
(2007):
Voting for Coalitions? The Role of Coalition Preferences and Expectations in Voting Behavior.
[Voters, Coalitions, and Democratic Accountability, Workshop, Exeter, October 05th to October 06th, 2007]
more
Gschwend, Thomas
(2007):
Wahlprognosen sind keine Hexerei - Vorhersagemodelle zum Mimachen.
[Die Lange Nacht der Wissenschaft, Mannheim, November 10th, 2007]
more
Wüst, Andreas M., and Thomas Gschwend
(2007):
Die Bedeutung von Umfragen im Wahlkampf.
[Moderne Politikvermittlung - Neue Wahlkampfformen in der Demokratie, Berlin, May 04th, 2007]
more
Wüst, Andreas M., and Thomas Gschwend
(2007):
Survey Research and Campaigns.
[3rd International Summer Academy 'Political Consulting and Strategic Campaign Communication', Bruchsal, September 27th, 2007]
more
Elff, Martin, and Thomas Gschwend
(2006):
How Much Can Be Inferred From Almost Nothing? A Maximum Entropy Approach to Fundamental Indeterminacy in Ecological Inference With an Application to District-Level Prediction of Split-Ticket Voting.
[Second international R user conference useR!, Vienna, June 15th to June 17th, 2006]
more
Gschwend, Thomas
(2006):
"Abgeordnetenhauswahlen sind keine Bundestagswahlen. Oder doch? Erfahrungsbericht aus Berlin.".
[Einfluss der Bundespolitik auf Landtagswahlen, Deutscher Bundestag, Berlin, November 09th to November 10th, 2006]
more
Gschwend, Thomas
(2006):
Are Modern Politics still Party Politics?.
[Inaugural Conference of the Comparative Candidates Study (CCS), Bad Dürkheim, October 06th to October 08th, 2006]
more
Gschwend, Thomas
(2006):
Comparative Politics of Strategic Voting: A Hierarchy of Electoral Systems.
[Contextual Effects in Electoral Research, Florenz, November 30th to December 01st, 2006]
more
Gschwend, Thomas
(2006):
Comparative Politics of Strategic Voting: A Hierarchy of Electoral Systems.
[Annual Meeting of the Elections, Public Opinion and Parties Specialist Group of the Political Studies Association, Nottingham, September 08th to September 10th, 2006]
more
Gschwend, Thomas
(2006):
District Magnitude and the Comparative Study of Strategic Voting.
[Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, Philadelphia, August 31st to September 03rd, 2006]
more
Gschwend, Thomas, and Henk van der Kolk
(2006):
Forecasting the Number of Split-Ticket Voters in Parliamentary Systems.
[Conference of the Center for American Political Studies, Harvard University, on “Democracy, Divided Government, and Split-Ticket Voting”, Harvard, May 26th to May 27th, 2006]
more
Gschwend, Thomas, Patric Andersson, Michael F. Meffert and Carsten Schmidt
(2006):
Forecasting the Outcome of a National Election: The Influence of Expertise, Information, and Political Preferences.
[Annual Conference of the International Communication Association, Dresden, June 19th to June 23rd, 2006]
more
Gschwend, Thomas
(2006):
Identifiability of Coalitions, District Magnitude and Strategic Voting.
[Annual Meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association, Chicago, April 20th to April 23rd, 2006]
more
Gschwend, Thomas
(2006):
Pre-electoral Identifiability of potential Governments: Measurement and Consequences.
[Political and Social Sciences Research Forum, University Pompeu Fabra, Barcelona, February 22nd, 2006]
more
Gschwend, Thomas, Martin Elff and Ron Johnston
(2006):
What Can We Learn From Almost Nothing? An Extended Maximum Entropy Approach to Uncertainty in RxC Ecological Inference, with an Application to Split-Ticket Voting.
[Conference of the Center for American Political Studies, Harvard University, on “Democracy, Divided Government, and Split-Ticket Voting, Harvard, May 26th to May 27th, 2006]
more
Wüst, Andreas M., and Thomas Gschwend
(2006):
Survey Research and Campaigns.
[2nd International Summer Academy on Political Consulting and Strategic Campaign Communication, Mannheim, July 26th, 2006]
more
Zittel, Thomas, and Thomas Gschwend
(2006):
Der Bundestagswahlkampf von 2005 und Kollektive Repräsentation: Ein kurzer Auftakt zum langen Abschied.
[Gemeinsame Tagung der DVPW-Arbeitskreise "Politik und Kommunikation", "Wahlen und Einstellungen" und "Parteienforschung", Berlin, July 19th to July 20th, 2006]
more
Zittel, Thomas, and Thomas Gschwend
(2006):
Personalisierte Wahlkämpfe im Wahlkreis. Eine Analyse des Bundestagswahlkampfes von 2005.
[3-Länder-Tagung "Politik und Persönlichkeit" der ÖGPW - SVPW - DVPW, Vienna, November 30th to December 02nd, 2006]
more
Gschwend, Thomas, Galen Irwin and Joop van Holsteyn
(2005):
Clarity of pre-election coalitions and strategic voting in PR systems: The case of the Netherlands.
[Annual Politicologenetmaal, the 4th Dutch-Belgium Political Science Conference, Antwerp, May 18th to May 19th, 2005]
more
Gschwend, Thomas
(2005):
Comparative Politics of Strategic Voting: A Hierarchy of Electoral Systems.
[Annual National Conference of the Midwest Political Science Association, Chicago, IL, April 07th to April 10th, 2005]
more
Gschwend, Thomas
(2005):
Comparative Politics of Strategic Voting: A Hierarchy of Electoral Systems.
[Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, Washington, DC, August 31st to September 04th, 2005]
more
Gschwend, Thomas
(2005):
Electoral Studies - Editorial Board Meeting.
[Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, Washigton, DC, August 31st to September 04th, 2005]
more
Gschwend, Thomas, and Martin Elff
(2005):
EMax - Die Ergänzung der ökologischen Inferenz durch Survey-Daten.
[Frühjahrstagung der Ad-Hoc-Gruppe 'Empirische Methoden der Politikwissenschaft' der DVPW, Hagen, May 20th to May 21st, 2005]
more
Gschwend, Thomas
(2005):
Institutional Incentives for Strategic Voting: The Case of Portugal.
[Electoral Behaviour and Political Attitudes: Portugal in the European Context Project, Lisbon, January 27th to January 28th, 2005]
more
Gschwend, Thomas
(2005):
Institutional Incentives for Strategic Voting: The Case of Portugal.
[Portuguese Electoral Behavior: Comparative and Longitudinal Approaches, Lisbon, January 27th to January 28th, 2005]
more
Gschwend, Thomas
(2005):
Ökologische Inferenz.
[Autorenkonferenz 'Methoden der Politikwissenschaft', Mannheim, February 18th to February 19th, 2005]
more
Gschwend, Thomas, and Marc Hooghe
(2005):
Should I Stay or Should I Go? Voter Reactions to Pre-Electoral Coalitions. Results from an Experimental Study in Belgium.
[Annual Politicologenetmaal, the 4th Dutch-Belgium Political Science Conference, Antwerp, May 18th to May 19th, 2005]
more
Gschwend, Thomas, and Henk van der Kolk
(2005):
Split ticket voting in Mixed Member Proportional Systems: The case of The Netherlands.
[Expert Meeting 'Changing the Electoral System. The Case of the Netherlands', Amsterdam, September 14th to September 15th, 2005]
more
Gschwend, Thomas
(2005):
Strategic Voting in Belgium.
[Annual Politicologenetmaal, the 4th Dutch-Belgium Political Science Conference, Antwerp, May 19th to May 20th, 2005]
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Gschwend, Thomas
(2004):
Electoral Institutions and Electoral Behavior: Results of a Natural Experiment..
[Gastvortrag, University of Leiden, May 12th to May 13th, 2004]
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Gschwend, Thomas
(2004):
MIT ROT-GRÜN INS SCHWARZE GETROFFEN: Ein sozialwissenschaftliche Prognosemodell für Bundestagswahlen.
[Studium Generale, Vortragsreihe 'Forum junge Wissenschaft', Mannheim, May 05th, 2004]
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Gschwend, Thomas
(2004):
Political institutions: The impact of constitutions and election laws on the formation of political parties and party systems in the accession countries of the European Union..
[Gastvorlesung, Institut d’Études Politiques de Paris, Sciences Po, Dijon Campus, April 06th to April 07th, 2004]
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Gschwend, Thomas, Michael Stoiber and Mareen Günther
(2004):
Strategic Voting in Proportional Systems: The Case of Finland.
[Annual Meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association, Chicago, IL, April 15th to April 18th, 2004]
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Gschwend, Thomas
(2004):
Wählen und Wahlsystem: Ergebnisse eines natürlichen Experiments des deutschen Mischwahlsystems.
[Gastvortrag im Rahmen des Berufungsverfahren zur Besetzung des Lehrstuhls "Methoden der Politikwissenschaft", Universität Zürich, February 04th, 2004]
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Gschwend, Thomas
(2003):
Comparative Politics of Strategic Voting: A Hierarchy of Electoral Systems.
[Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, Philadelphia, PA., August 28th to September 02nd, 2003]
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Gschwend, Thomas
(2003):
Comparative Politics of Strategic Voting: An Empirical Test of the Leys-Sartori Conjecture.
[Annual Meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association, Chicago, IL, April 03rd to April 06th, 2003]
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Gschwend, Thomas, and Helmut Norpoth
(2002):
If the election were next Sunday...: A Forecast of the 2002 Bundestag Election.
[Annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Boston, MA, August 29th to September 01st, 2002]
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Gschwend, Thomas, and Chad King
(2002):
The Politics of Opinion Assignment: A Bayesian Hierarchical Approach.
[Annual meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association, Chicago, IL, April 25th to April 28th, 2002]
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Lavine, Howard, and Thomas Gschwend
(2002):
Ideology and Rationality: Issue Constraint in Political Decision-Making.
[Annual Meeting of the International Society of Political Psychology, Berlin, July 16th to July 20th, 2002]
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Gschwend, Thomas
(2001):
Ticket-Splitting and Strategic Voting in Mixed Electoral Systems.
[Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, San Francisco, CA, August 29th to September 01st, 2001]
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King, Chad, and Thomas Gschwend
(2001):
Assigning the Majority Opinion: A Replication and Extension.
[Annual Political Science Methodology Conference, Atlanta, GA, July 20th to July 21st, 2001]
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