(GLES) Long- and Short-term Panel Studies
At the occasion of the 2013 Bundestag election, the multi-facetted GLES research design has been realized for the second time. The project both provides an unprecedented wealth of high-quality data to the scientific community shortly after the election and has produced numerous publications focusing on the 2009 and 2013 elections and electoral change from various perspectives. Among other things, a book-length study of electoral change in Germany has been published with Oxford University Press, comprehensive analyses of the 2009 and 2013 elections have been published with Nomos. In the third funding period from 2015 to 2017, the well-proven design will be applied to the 2017 election, thus broadening the longitudinal perspective which is at the heart of GLES.
The face-to-face long-term panel is an integral part of GLES that connects both to the cross-sectional surveys, and to previous elections, thus providing comprehensive data to study the incidence and patterns of long-term electoral change in Germany at the individual level. About 1300 respondents could be interviewed in 2009 and 2013. Additionally, about 1800 respondents from the 2013 cross-section were willing to be re-interviewed. In the third project period, annual re-interviews with the respondents from the 2009 and 2013 cross-section surveys will be conducted which will provide the base for analyses of long-term individual-level dynamics of public attitudes and behavior over several subsequent elections. These annual interviews will be conducted in a mixed-mode design where priority is given to web interviews as a first step to merge the short- and long-term panel studies in the future. The short-term campaign panel is designed to analyze intra-individual developments of political attitudes and political behavior during the electoral campaign. In 2013, a similar design as in 2009 was applied, enriched by the inclusion of three independent cross-sections as control groups. In total, 5256 respondents participated in the 2013 campaign panel, 1011 of which had already participated in the GLES campaign panel of 2009. Almost 3500 persons completed all seven waves. Due to a number of measures, retention rates could be further improved when compared to 2009.
Beginning in 2014, annual re-interviews will be introduced to this online-panel to add a longitudinal perspective to this component. With data from both panel studies, findings about the specific constellations and the short-term dynamics of a given election or electoral campaign can be integrated into a long-term perspective in search of broader generalizations or structural developments. Beginning in 2014, the annual re-interviews will be synchronized between both panels in terms of questionnaires and field times in order to further enhance such comparative analyses.
Data for the 2013 federal election have been published in cooperation with GESIS for the Short-term Campaign Panel (ZA5704) and for the Long-term Panel (ZA5322). In fall 2014, the annual Long-term Panel wave has been conducted, mostly online. For the panel started in 2009, the number of cases amounts to 90 percent of the 2013 interviews. Additionally, 65 percent of the cross-section respondents 2013 willing to be re-interviewed participated. Simultaneously, the participants of the Campaign Panel 2013 were re-interviewed with about 70 percent of all initial respondents participating. In total, about 5,500 persons were interviewed both in 2013 and 2014 in these two panel studies.