Research on pandemics usually suggests that pandemics hit people of lower social status particularly strongly. Challenging this suggestion, we hypothesise that this only applies to the later phases of pandemics and that in the critical early phases, pandemics spread primarily among people of higher social status. In a preliminary study, we found evidence for our phase-sensitive model in two pandemics (COVID-19 and the 1918/19 Spanish Flu) and three nations (US, England, Germany). To gain a deeper theoretical understanding of our model, we addressed three main research questions: (RQ1) The preliminary evidence for our model was based on regional COVID-19 data. Does that evidence generalise to the individual level? We used web-scraped US mortality data from the COVID-19 pandemic and found that our model also holds on the individual level. (RQ2) The preliminary evidence for our model was based on data from nations with an early pandemic onset. Does that evidence generalise to nations with later onsets—nations that had more time to prepare? We used regional COVID-19 data from 24 European nations and 50 US states and found that our model only holds in nations and states with an early pandemic onset. In nations and states that had a later onset and more time to prepare, poorer regions were always more affected. (RQ3) The preliminary evidence for our model is based on data from the first pandemic wave of COVID-19. Does that evidence generalise to the second wave, in which the virus was no longer novel to any societal stratum? We expanded our data from RQ2 to include the second wave. We found that our model holds in the second pandemic wave—but only in Europe, where the pandemic was almost completely contained between the waves. Overall, we found that pandemics initially spread among people and regions of higher social status. We refined our theoretical understanding by pointing to two boundary conditions: Our model only holds if nations or states are hit without time to prepare, and it only holds in the second pandemic wave if the pandemic is contained between waves.
Fact sheet
Funding:
DFG
Duration:
2021 to 2023
Status:
completed
Data Sources:
SOEP, Web scraped data from an online cemetery, official regional COVID data from 18 governmental agencies
