The Effect of 'Surplus' Men on Xenophobia: Panel Data from the Neue Bundesländer
In the absence of manipulation, both the sex ratio at birth and the population sex ratio are remarkably constant in human populations. In large parts of Asia and North Africa, the tradition of son preferences, manifest through sex-selective abortion and discrimination in care practices for girls, has distorted these natural sex ratios. The large cohorts of "surplus" males now reaching adulthood are predominantly of low socioeconomic class, and numerous studies express concerns that their lack of marriageability, and the consequent marginalization in society, may lead to antisocial behaviour, violence, prostitution, and HIV spread.
Although less dramatic in origin and size, qualitatively similar cohorts of "surplus" men have also emerged in the Neue Bundesländer, where disproportionally many women left rural municipalities during the last two decades since re-unification. We study the effects of these cohorts of "surplus" men by combining micro-level survey data on attitudes with municipality-level data on demographics. Using this new panel data set covering all former East German Landeskreise over the last 20 years, we can estimate the direct demographic effects of "surplus" men on cohabitation, marriage, and divorce rates, and the indirect sociological effects of social marginalization on xenophobic attitudes towards foreigners and support for extreme-right parties.
The project proposal has been submitted to the DFG. So far, an overview of the current literature has been established and a first formal model explaining the key relationships was developed. Various datasets have been considered and we obtained first methodological results based on the model. We are currently collecting further register data to be matched with the survey data.