Can we observe that MPs who deviated from the party line – in terms of the content of the
speeches they delivered in parliament – have a lower chance to be re-nominated by their
party? Frequent deviations of an incumbent MP do not constitute support for the party
leadership and may thus encourage the party elite to punish the deviating representatives.
However, not addressing the problems existing in the respective electoral district might
similarly increase the chances that an MP faces intra-party challengers. To explore these
processes, we make use of a novel dataset that covers not only information on all Bundestag
MPs that have run for re-election in 2013, but also on their intra-party competitors in the
electoral districts. By combining this information with characteristics of the respective
constituency and with the ideological position an MP adopted in her parliamentary speeches
in the legislative period from 2009 until 2013, we test whether an MP was re-nominated or
not because of the (missing) congruence between her positions and the party’s positions or
due to the economic situation in her constituency. We find that constituency characteristics
matter for the re-nomination chances for district candidates, while an increasing degree of
ideological deviation from the party line results in a worse position on the party list for MPs
from the opposition parties. These results have important implications for our understanding
of democratic responsiveness.
