AbstractPolitical Leaders and Democratic Elections unravels and evaluates the importance of political leaders in the vote decision. Outcomes of legislative elections are typically reported in terms of party support: how many votes and seats were obtained by each party? But in fact voters are faced with three choices which must be folded into one. They must decide which party they prefer, but in doing so they also choose among the policies advocated by these parties, and among the leaders who eventually have to enact them. This simple fact raises the question of the relative weight of these dimensions in vote choice, and particularly the relative importance of leaders. Surprisingly, the question has been largely neglected in the vast literature on voting behavior. The dominant traditions in voting behavior focus on political parties and party identification, and on political issues and ideology respectively. This volume systematically assesses the role of political leaders in the vote decision in nine democracies (Australia, Britain, Canada, Germany, the Netherlands, Norway, Spain, Sweden, and the United States), over a period of up to 50 years, using election surveys. It assesses the changes in political communication (particularly the rise of televized politics) over the past decades. It explains how important political leaders are in different types of political systems. It shows that the electoral system and other political institutions do affect the share of leader evaluations in vote choice. And it shows, in contrast with popular wisdom, how unimportant characteristics of the leaders themselves, characteristics of their parties, and characteristics of their voters are for vote choice. Finally, the volume shows that voters tend to let themselves be guided by the leaders they like rather than being pushed away from those they dislike.Contents:List of Figures 1. Political Leaders and Democratic Elections
2. Changing Patterns of Political Communication
3. Party Leader Effects on the Vote
4. Political Leaders in Westminster Systems
5. US Party Leaders: Exploring the Meaning of Candidate-Centered Politics
6. Elections as Beauty Contests: Do the Rules Matter?
7. Leader Effects and Party Characteristics
8. Leader Effects and the Impact of Leader Characteristics in Nine Countries
9. Voter Characteristics and Leader Effects
10. Pull or Push? The Relative Impact of Positive and Negative Leader Evaluations and Vote Choice
11. Leader Traits, Leader Image, and Vote Choice References Notes on Contributors:Bernt Aardal, Senior researcher at the Institute for Social Research, Oslo Kees Aarts, Professor of Political Science at the University of Twente and Scientific Director of the Institute of Innovation and Governance Studies Tanja Binder, doctoral candidate in the Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin, research unit Democracy: Structures, performance, challenges André Blais, Canada Research Chair in Electoral Studies, Department of Political Science, University of Montreal John Curtice, Professor of Politics and Deputy-Director of CREST, University of Strathclyde Elisabeth Gidengil, Professor of Political Science at McGill University and Director of the Centre for the Study of Democratic Citizenship Sören Holmberg, Professor of Political Science at the University of Gothenburg Sarinder Hunjan, was affiliated with the Social Statistics Laboratory of the University of Strathclyde Ian McAllister, Professor of Political Science in the Research School of Social Sciences at the Australian National University Richard Nadeau, Professor of Political Science, Department of Political Science, University of Montreal Neil Nevitte, Professor of Political Science, University of Toronto Dieter Ohr, Professor of Methods of Empirical Social Research, Free University Berlin Henrik Oscarsson, Associate Professor of Political Science at the University of Gothenburg Hermann Schmitt, Professor of Political Science at the University of Mannheim and Research Fellow at MZES
Martin P. Wattenberg, Professor of Political Science at the University of California, Irvine |