Failure of Party-Sponsored Protests in Non-Democratic Context. The Case of Hungary

Across various socio-political contexts, political parties have increasingly engaged in protest politics to achieve electoral success. However, the interaction between party-sponsored protests and political polarization in non-democratic regimes remains underexplored. We ask to what extent the politicization of protest events is associated with higher levels of participation. Theoretically, we bridge the literature on party presence in protests and the effects of polarization on political participation. The former shows that party-sponsored protest events are typically well-attended, peaceful, and take place around elections. The latter demonstrates that polarization boosts participation by clarifying the stakes and intensifying partisan attachments. However, in non-democratic contexts like Hungary, politicized protests may demobilize participants due to higher perceived risks and lower perceived efficacy. The study employs survey experiments to test these dynamics. We utilize a vignette of highly or moderately politicized events, varying the issue salience, polarization, and the number of actors involved. The experiment measures willingness to protest, perceived risks, protest efficacy, and expected public support. Findings suggest that in semi-democratic regimes, politicized protests might demobilize rather than increase participation, highlighting the importance of context in understanding protest dynamics and the potential risks in regimes with limited democratic freedoms.