In this article we use a combination of retrospective
and prospective data from the Polish Migration Project
to examine the effect of social capital on the likelihood
of migrating to Germany. We derive hypotheses from
social capital theory about how personal connections to
people with migratory experience affect the probability
of migration, and we specify models to be estimated
using both the retrospective and prospective data.
Estimates of retrospective event history models con-
firm prior findings about social capital’s influence on
migration decisions, and these findings are also generally
confirmed using prospective data, even when
potentially confounding variables are controlled. The
prospective data also enable estimation of a two-stage
decision model in which people first come to consider
migration as an option and then rationally consider
whether to depart. The estimates suggest that weak
social ties are especially influential in predicting
whether migration is considered, while strong ties are
important in the decision to move.
