Nate Breznau
Nation States, Group Dynamics and Immigration in Western Europe: Lessons and Predictions

4th Conference of the Association of Leading Universities in Migration Research (ALUM), Beirut, 06. bis 07. November 2017

This paper analyzes and predicts the trajectory of immigration and anti-immigrant parties in Western Europe from 1962 to 2035. During this period immigration increased and likely continues to increase. At the same time, populist parties garner more and more vote shares. By 2017, countries in Western Europe average 12% of votes cast for the sweeping new wave of neo-nationalist, anti-immigrant, populist parties. The percentage of the population that are first generation immigrant predicts between 50 and 94% of the variance in anti-immigrant party votes from 1962-2017. Using alternative methods of predicting immigration and anti-immigrant vote shares until 2035 suggests moderate to extreme increases. Even the most conservative predictions suggest over 15% of the vote going to anti-immigrant parties. Anti-immigrant parties and immigration are only part of the risk to democratic and European stability. This paper discusses group dynamics in the political, social and economic spheres and suggests that Europe likely entered a new season – the fall.