Maria Preißinger, Harald Schoen, Elena Wiegand
Vote switching in two consecutive national election campaigns: Evidence from the 2009-to-2013 GLES campaign panel survey

9th ECPR General Conference, Université de Montréal, 26. bis 29. August 2015

Prior research suggests that vote switching both within and between elections campaigns reflects a lack of strong political involvement and predispositions. By contrast, it has largely ignored campaign features as possible sources of electoral volatility. Building on a cognitive-interactionist framework, we suggest that campaign features affect intra-election volatility, probably conditioned by individual-level characteristics. This line of reasoning also suggests that intra-election volatility varies across campaigns. Moreover, it implies that intra- and inter-election volatility may have different sources. Data from the GLES campaign panel surveys conducted in the run-up to the 2009 and 2013 German federal elections provide an excellent opportunity to answer these questions. A sizable group of citizens participated in 2009 were re-interviewed in 2013. Drawing on this data, we will analyze long- and short-term changing patterns within the same persons and their predictors in a yet unique manner.