We present robust evidence on the presence of adverse selection in hospitalization
insurance for low-income households. A large randomized control trial from Pakistan allows
us to separate adverse selection from moral hazard, to estimate how selection changes at
different points of the demand curve and to test simple measures against adverse selection.
The results reveal substantial selection in individual policies, leading to welfare losses and
the threat of a market breakdown. Bundling insurance policies at the household or higher
levels almost eliminates adverse selection, thus mitigating its welfare consequences and
creating the possibility for sustainable insurance supply.
