Coalition Forecast by Prof. Marc Debus: 44 percent probability for red-red-green in Berlin

Using his forecasting model, political scientist Prof. Dr. Marc Debus concludes that a red--red--green alliance is the most likely outcome of the government formation process in Berlin with a probability of 44 percent.The second most likely coalition is an alliance between the CDU and SPD with 33 percent, followed by a CDU-Greens alliance with a probability of 21 percent. The political scientist announced this on Twitter. More details on data, methods, and model quality in the literature cited below.

(13 February 2023)