Election Forecasts for the German Federal Election 2025
Research question/goal:
In this research project, we devise a forecasting endeavour for the 2025 German Federal Election, which provides three main contributions. First, it advances the dynamic scientific forecasting of elections in multiparty systems by developing and applying new methods that account for uncertainty over time and efficiently pool information from various sources and levels. Second, it collects primary and secondary polling data, which will inform local and national level forecasts as well as research on the consequences of election forecasting exposure. These data will be made available to the scientific community for further analyses. Third, it will provide observational and experimental evidence on the consequences of election forecasts on the attitudes and behaviours of citizens and elites.
External Directors: Lukas F. Stoetzer (University of Witten/Herdecke) and Simon Munzert (Hertie School Berlin)
Current stage:
We collected survey data ahead of the Saxon state election in September 2024 and gathered structural data from previous state elections. Additionally, we adapted our forecasting model for state elections and utilized the collected data to create forecasts for Brandenburg, Thuringia, and Saxony. The forecasts and their evaluations can be viewed at zweitstimme.org. A paper based on this work has been submitted. Furthermore, we presented our research at various conferences, including the German Political Science Association’s (DVPW) conference, where we organized an election forecasting panel. Currently, we are preparing our data collection for the 2025 German federal election.
Fact sheet
Funding:
DFG
Duration:
2023 to 2026
Status:
ongoing
Data Sources:
Survey data (incl. survey experiments), polls, official statistics
