Issue Evolution in Multiparty Systems
Issue evolution has been studied extensively for the US plurality system. For proportional systems, however, the game of political competition is much more complex. We still know little about how issue evolution works in multiparty systems, and in what aspects it differs from issue evolution in plurality systems. The project will address this gap by studying whether the emergence of immigration as a salient policy issue is the result of a tactical manoeuvre by radical right parties. Connecting to the literature on issue evolution it will investigate theoretically and empirically when and why new issues emerge and become sufficiently salient to restructure the policy space. The contribution of the project is twofold, by first providing a theory of political competition that considers position taking and issue emphasizing as party strategies. Second, it will generate empirical insights, by testing observable implications of the theory.
In 2024, we focussed on analysing the role of issue salience in European party systems from both a formal and an empirical perspective. Three manuscripts were finalised, two of which have already been accepted for publication. We also analysed the structure of West European public opinion using data we had gathered and combined in the first years of the project. The results have been summarised in a manuscript, which we are currently revising for publication. To analyse issue evolution in environmental policy more closely, we hand-coded German parties’ manifestos with a newly developed scheme.