Probabilistic modelling of the vote in multiparty systems

Research question/goal: 

The vote in multiparty systems is a discrete choice between several alternatives. Conditional logit models are appropriate for this type of decision. In this project, these models were applied to explain the voting decision in several German elections. It could be shown, that issue distances have a significant impact on the vote if the model is specified correctly.

Fact sheet

Funding: 
MZES / DFG
Duration: 
1997 to 1998
Status: 
completed
Geographic Space: 
Germany

Publications

Books

Thurner, Paul W. (1998): Wählen als rationale Entscheidung. Die Modellierung von Politikreaktionen im Mehrparteiensystem. München: Oldenbourg. more

Journal Articles

Thurner, Paul W., and Angelika Eymann (2000): Policy-specific alienation and indifference in the calculus of voting: A simultaneous model of party choice and abstention. Public Choice, issue 102, pp. 51-77. more
Thurner, Paul W. (2000): The empirical application of the spatial theory of voting in multiparty systems with random utility models. Electoral Studies, issue 19, pp. 493-517. more
Thurner, Paul W. (2000): Überhangmandate: theoretisch und empirisch unerschöpft. Rezension von Holger Jakob: Überhangmandat und Gleichheit der Wahl. Ein Beitrag zur aktuellen Wahlrechtsdiskusison. Zeitschrift für Parlamentsfragen, 31, issue 2, pp. 493-494. more
Thurner, Paul W. (1999): Taktisch oder Aufrichtig? Zur Untersuchung des Stimmensplittings bei Bundestagswahlen. Eine Replik auf Harald Schoens Beitrag in Heft 2/1998 der Zeitschrift für Parlamentsfragen. Zeitschrift für Parlamentsfragen, 30, issue 1, pp. 163-166. more

MZES Working Papers

Thurner, Paul W., and Franz Urban Pappi (1999): Causes and Effects of Coalition Preferences in a Mixed-Member Proportional System. Mannheim [Mannheimer Zentrum für Europäische Sozialforschung: Arbeitspapiere; 1] more
Thurner, Paul W., and Angelika Eymann (1997): Policy-Specific Alienation and Indifference in the Calculus of Voting: A Simultaneous Model of Party Choice and Abstention. Mannheim [Arbeitsbereich II; 18] more
Thurner, Paul W. (1996): Estimating the Parameters of a Spatial Voting Model with Multiattributive Random Utility Models. An Empirical Analysis of the 1990 Bundestag Election. Mannheim [Arbeitsbereich II; 13] more

Other Publications

Thurner, Paul W., Angelika Eymann and Franz Urban Pappi (2000): Voter Reactions Towards EMU: Did Foreign Trade Sensitivity Matter?. Washington more