In many Western societies, the current “native” majority will become a numerical minority
sometime within the next century. How does prospective demographic change affect existing group
boundaries? An influential recent article by Abascal (2020) showed that white Americans under
demographic threat reacted with boundary contraction—that is, they were less likely to classify
ambiguously white people as “white.” The present study examines the generalizability of these
findings beyond the American context. Specifically, we test whether informing Germans about the
projected decline of the “native” population without migration background affects the classification
of phenotypically ambiguous individuals. Our results show that information about demographic
change neither affects the definition of group boundaries nor generates negative feelings toward
minority outgroups. These findings point to the relevance of contextual differences in shaping the
conditions under which demographic change triggers group threat and boundary shifts.
