Prime ministers act at the heart of politics in parliamentary democracies. However, it is yet unclear why some prime ministers stay in office for a decade and others for a couple of months only. Does it even make a difference when a new prime minister enters office? This project investigates when and why prime ministerial (PM) change takes place and what consequences PM change has on voters, parties, governments, and political representation in parliamentary democracies in general. Based on data from European democracies since 1945, the project develops theoretical arguments that explain the timing of PM replacements and the links between PM change, party policy change, and government policy change. Furthermore, the project employs survey experiments to learn how PM change affects what voters think about parties and governments.
The project is currently in the stage of data collection. In particular, we collect data on prime ministers leaving office to study how different factors increase or decrease their survival in office. Furthermore, we are currently developing more specific empirical methods that will allow us to distinguish between those prime ministers that leave office voluntarily and those who are pushed out of office by intra-party competition.
