The Electoral Advantages of Being a Prime Minister Candidates' Party
Research question/goal:
Based on the hypothesis that voters prefer parties with a good chance of forming a government, this project explores whether parties gain votes beyond their ideological appeal if they are potential candidates to be the next prime minister’s party. To investigate the impact of the label "prime minister candidate's party" on parties’ electoral performance, the project analyses election results, dedicated surveys, and experimental data at the level of the German federal states as well as cross-nationally. Additionally, the project seeks to propose a functional definition of the “prime minister candidate’s party” based on its projected electoral performance, reputation, and media coverage.
Current stage:
A comparative analysis based on Modules 1 through 5 of the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems (CSES) and German pre-election surveys from 1998 to 2021 has been published in the European Journal of Political Research. While the application for an ERC Starting Grant was not successful, a proposal for the Emmy Noether Programme was submitted in May 2025 and is awaiting final decision.