Withstanding the Bullies – Strategies, Motivations and Cooperation of Mainstream Actors Countering Populist Obstructions in the European Council and the Council of the European Union

Research question/goal: 

 

Obstructive behaviour by populist governments constitutes a systematic threat to consensus-building in the European Council and the Council of the European Union (EU). Yet, few studies focus on those actors trying to withstand populist obstructions and preserve the functionality of intergovernmental decision-making in the EU. This research project develops and empirically tests a comprehensive theory of the strategies, motivations and the conditions for cooperation of four groups of mainstream actors best positioned to counter populist obstructions: the President of the European Council, the rotating Council presidency, the European Commission and the governments of the EU’s two largest member states, France and Germany. 
Theoretically, the project distinguishes between two types of counterstrategies. Deliberative strategies aim to accommodate populist governments through political concessions whereas confrontational strategies exploit interdependencies to exert political pressure. The project formulates competing expectations regarding how mainstream actors choose between these options. A rational perspective suggests they select those countermeasures from which they expect that they most effectively contain the impact of the populist obstructions on their own goals. A constructivist view expects them to act in accordance with procedural norms and role perceptions that define appropriate behaviour within their institutional environment. 
To probe the plausibility of these competing logics of reasoning, the project uses theory-testing process tracing. It examines the strategies mainstream actors employed in countering attempts of the Hungarian government to obstruct decision-making on EU initiatives supporting Ukraine. The empirical analysis is structured into three work packages. The first provides a full account of policies obstructed by Hungary since the onset of the Russian full-scale invasion and the counterstrategies adopted by each mainstream actor. The second working package tests the causal mechanisms connected to the two logics of reasoning in a selection of cases. The third package compares the results across actors to identify conditions under which they form a united front against populist obstructions. 
The project will advance the academic understanding of how mainstream actors handle populist obstructions in intergovernmental decision-making. Furthermore, the findings will offer practical insights for preparing multilateral institutions against challenges stemming from the global rise of populism.

 

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