Constrained Immobility under Compound Shocks: The Migration Aspiration-Planning Gap

Immobility is increasingly understood not simply as the absence of migration, but as an outcome requiring explanation. Most studies, however, identify immobility from observed non-movement and therefore cannot distinguish people who prefer to stay from those whose desire to leave remains unrealised. This study examines constrained immobility through the gap between strong migration aspirations and the absence of a concrete migration plan. Using Afrobarometer Round 7 data across 34 sub-Saharan African countries, merged with georeferenced UCDP conflict data and SPEI-based drought measures, we analyse how armed conflict and drought relate to two stages of migration decision-making: the formation of migration aspirations and the presence of concrete plans among aspirants. We distinguish three possible responses to adversity: mobilisation, where both aspirations and planning increase; constrained progression, where aspirations rise but planning declines; and suppression, where aspirations themselves weaken. We further disaggregate armed conflict by violence type and examine whether compound conflict–drought exposure widens the aspiration–planning gap beyond either shock alone. By identifying when pressure to leave is not accompanied by concrete planning, the study shifts attention from migration outcomes to an earlier form of constrained immobility, while recognising that it does not directly establish permanent non-movement.