Issue Evolution in Multiparty Systems

Project Directors Dr. Anna-Sophie Kurella Project Staff Milena Rapp DFG-funded 2020 – 2025

Research question/goal:

The aim of the research project was to investigate how new, politically relevant issues arise in public debate and how political parties exploit them for their own ends. The central question was under what conditions and for what reasons political actors succeed in establishing a new issue that represents a central line of conflict in the political arena. This question is relevant not only for political science, but also for understanding current developments, such as the rise of right-wing extremist parties in Europe. 
The project examined these relationships formally and empirically. We were able to show under what conditions parties benefit from increased attention to their “core issue”: If a party has a clearly recognizable but not too extreme position on its defining issue and at the same time remains moderate on the main line of conflict, it can win. If it is too close to a competitor or too far from the centre of voter preferences on the main line of conflict, greater focus on the issue can even be detrimental. Whether issue-entrepreneurial strategies are worthwhile therefore also depends on the position of competitors in the multidimensional political space. We empirically proved this logic using European survey data.
A second important contribution of the project is a new model of party competition in which parties not only choose their positions but also decide how strongly to emphasize a particular issue. In previous research, position and salience were usually considered separately. Simulations were used to show which factors determine political differentiation and the emphasis placed on secondary, niche issues. In addition to public opinion, non-political valence advantages such as credibility, political experience, and competence also play a role. The results show that even established parties with a good reputation perceive supposed incentives to promote new issues, at least if these have previously been politicised by a challenger party. This explains current developments such as the growing willingness of moderate mainstream parties to take up migration issues that were originally brought into the debate by right-wing extremist challengers.


Publications

Presentations

  • Kurella, Anna-Sophie, Milena Rapp (2022): New paths in the analysis of issue voting in multidimensional policy spaces: combining voter preferences and party positions from different sources. [ECPR General Conference, Innsbruck, 22/08/2022 - 26/08/2022]. More