Assessing the Interplay Between Natural Hazards and Political Instability on Migration Decisions

In 2024, the UNHCR documented that over 130 million individuals worldwide were displaced, frequently in areas affected by extreme weather and sustained conflict. Prior research typically analyzed the impacts of conflicts and disasters on migration as separate factors. Our study builds on this by examining the interplay between these calamities and their complex effects, which predispose individuals to move and precipitate action. Our study combines geo-referenced administrative data on various conflict types (Uppsala Conflict Data Program) and natural hazard-related disasters (The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project) with a comprehensive, geo-referenced household survey from The Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) Program. This survey offers detailed insights into the migration status and characteristics of household members. Using Baysian statistical analysis tools we investigate relationships between migration decisions, conflict, and climate indicators. This setup allows to disentangle compounding and conditional effects in the complex climate-conflict-mobility nexus. Our preliminary findings indicate that interactions between state-based and non-state conflicts and flood events significantly amplify migration rates. Additionally, we observe heterogeneous migration responses influenced by varying household characteristics. This underscores the necessity of understanding the nuanced interplay between various emergencies to formulate effective assistance policies for those threatened by violence and disasters.