Ballots, Bullets, and Trees: Election Timing and Violence Against Environmentalists.

Why are environmental defenders killed? Violence against environmental defenders is often used to secure agricultural rents. Yet, we identify a puzzling trend: such violence declines during election periods. Why? We propose a novel framework linking this decline to political and economic incentives shaped by foreign direct investment (FDI) in agriculture. Around elections, international media in FDI-sending countries intensify scrutiny of recipient states. This increased visibility creates reputational and financial risks for domestic agricultural elites, who respond by curbing violence to protect FDI inflows and preserve access to global markets. Analyzing a global dataset, we show that violence against environmental defenders systematically decreases during elections in countries with high agricultural FDI. We also find that foreign media coverage of these countries spikes during election periods, reinforcing our proposed mechanism. Our findings highlight how global economic ties and transnational media pressures can create temporary political accountability and reduce violence against vulnerable groups.