Forecasting the German Federal Election 2025 – Different Modelling Approaches

The Zweitstimme.org project presents a comprehensive approach to forecasting the 2025 German federal election, combining multiple methodologies to predict both party vote shares (Zweitstimme) and constituency-level outcomes (Erststimme). This presentation showcases three distinct forecasting approaches: a dynamic Zweitstimme model, a proportional swing Erststimme model, and citizen forecasting. The project also communicated the forecasts and their uncertainties to the public, with results being shared in various media outlets.