In Saxony-Anhalt, Berlin and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, thrilling state elections are coming up in September. The zweitstimme.org project, developed by researchers from the MZES, the Hertie School Berlin and Witten-Herdecke University, provides detailed forecasts – even at constituency level and including the parties’ chances of entering the state parliaments. The model simulates the respective election outcomes many times, thus quantifying the probabilities. The forecasts are automatically updated with every new poll; the methodology, data and code are documented transparently.
Related people:
Thomas Gschwend, Hannah Rajski
Related project: