Making Electoral Democracy Work

Project Directors Prof. Ph.D. Thomas Gschwend Project Staff Dr. Steffen Zittlau Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada-funded 2011 – 2017

Research question/goal:

Making Electoral Democracy Work (MEDW) was an international collaborative project that brought together political scientists, economists, and psychologists from Canada, Europe, and the United States. It was the most ambitious study ever undertaken of the impact of electoral rules on the functioning of democracy and funded by the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada.

The study implemented voter surveys across 18 elections at various levels of governance between 2011 and 2015 in Canada, France, Germany, Spain, and Switzerland. The analyses were then completed by laboratory and online experiments. We systematically collected and coded a wide range of partisan material for the three months preceding those elections as well as information about the conduct of the campaign. This included the major campaign events, the polls released by the media, and the official announcements and conducted semi-structured interviews with party campaign managers to learn more about the strategies adopted by the parties.

The most influential framework for explaining multilevel electoral politics is the Second-Order Election (SOE) model. We found that there is a crucial kernel of truth in the SOE model: some elections are considered more important by both voters and parties, and voters behave differently depending on the importance of the election. Our central result was that the SOE model is right in stressing that voters are bound to pay less attention to elections they deem to be less important. However, the SOE model falls short in two key respects: it wrongly assumes that voters always consider national elections to be the most important and, equally critically, it neglects the role of political parties.


Publications

Book Chapters

  • Arzheimer, Kai, Jocelyn Evans, Michael S. Lewis-Beck (Eds.) Gschwend, Thomas, Michael F. Meffert (2017): Strategic Voting. 339-366. London, Sage. More
  • Schmitt-Beck, Rüdiger (Eds.) Bytzek, Evelyn, Thomas Gschwend, Sascha Huber, Eric Linhart, Michael F. Meffert (2012): Koalitionssignale und ihre Wirkungen auf Wahlentscheidungen. 45, 393-418. Baden-Baden, Nomos. More
  • Kittel, Bernhard, Wolfgang J. Luhan, Rebecca B. Morton (Eds.) Hooghe, Marc, Sofie Marien, Thomas Gschwend (2011): Gathering Counter-Factual Evidence: An Experimental Study on Voters’ Responses to Pre-Electoral Coalitions. 413-440. Basingstoke, Palgrave Macmillan. More

Journal Articles

  • Dentler, Klara, Thomas Gschwend, David Hünlich (2021): A swing vote from the ethnic backstage: The role of German American isolationist tradition for Trump’s 2016 victory. Electoral Studies, 71, (article no. 102309). More
  • Leininger, Arndt, Lukas Rudolph, Steffen Zittlau (2018): How to Increase Turnout in Low-Salience Elections: Quasi-Experimental Evidence on the Effect of Concurrent Second-Order Elections on Political Participation. Political Science Research and Methods, 6, 3, 509-526. More
  • Munzert, Simon, Lukas F. Stötzer, Thomas Gschwend, Marcel Neunhoeffer, Sebastian Sternberg (2017): Zweitstimme.org. Ein strukturell-dynamisches Vorhersagemodell für Bundestagswahlen. Politische Vierteljahresschrift, 58, 3, 418-441. More
  • Norpoth, Helmut, Thomas Gschwend (2017): Chancellor Model Predicts a Change of the Guards. PS: Political Science & Politics, 50, 3, 686-688. More
  • Norpoth, Helmut, Thomas Gschwend (2013): Chancellor Model Picks Merkel in 2013 German Election. Political Science & Politics, 46, 3, 481-482. More

Presentations

  • Stötzer, Lukas F., Simon Munzert, Thomas Gschwend, Marcel Neunhoeffer, Sebastian Sternberg (2017): Forecasting Elections in Multi-party Systems: A Backwards Random-walk Approach. [Invited Talk, University of Amsterdam, 14/09/2017 - 14/09/2017]. More
  • Gschwend, Thomas, Lukas F. Stötzer, Steffen Zittlau (2015): Valence Campaigning in the 2008 US Congressional Elections. [111th Annual Conference of the American Political Science Association, San Francisco, 03/09/2015 - 06/09/2015]. More
  • Zittlau, Steffen (2015): Multi-level spatial voting: Vote switching in EP elections and European integration preferences. [5th Annual General Conference of the European Political Science Association, Vienna, 25/06/2015 - 27/06/2015]. More
  • Gschwend, Thomas, Lukas F. Stötzer, Steffen Zittlau (2014): Why don't you talk about policy? Valence campaigning in the 2008 US Congressional elections. [4th Annual General Conference of the European Political Science Association, Edinburgh, 19/06/2014 - 21/06/2014]. More
  • Blais, André, Ludovic Rheault, John H. Aldrich, Thomas Gschwend (2013): Understanding People's Choice When They Have Two Votes. [Annual Conference of the Canadian Political Science Association, University of Victoria, British Columbia, 04/06/2013 - 06/06/2013]. More