Dr. Lukas F. Stötzer

External fellow
lukas.stoetzer [at] hu-berlin.de
Phone: 
+49-621-181-2842
Postal Address
Humboldt University of Berlin
10117  Berlin
Germany
Visiting Address
Humboldt University of Berlin
10117  Berlin

Projects

B1 Conditions of Democratic Governance: Behaviour and Orientations of Citizens

B1.2305
Election Forecasts for the German Federal Election 2025

B2 Contexts for Democratic Governance: Political Institutions

B2.1830
Pre-electoral Coalition Strategies

Publications

(Note: Generally, the former staff pages only feature publications that have been published at the MZES. Furthermore, the former staff pages feature publications that have been published in co-authorship with current MZES staff.)

Journal Articles

Bahnsen, Oke, Thomas Gschwend and Lukas F. Stötzer (2020): How do coalition signals shape voting behavior? Revealing the mediating role of coalition expectations. Electoral Studies, 66, issue August 2020, (article no. 102166). more
Stötzer, Lukas F., Marcel Neunhoeffer, Thomas Gschwend, Simon Munzert and Sebastian Sternberg (2019): Forecasting Elections in Multiparty Systems: A Bayesian Approach Combining Polls and Fundamentals. Political Analysis, 27, issue 2, pp. 255-262. more
Naumann, Elias, Lukas F. Stötzer and Giuseppe Pietrantuono (2018): Attitudes towards highly skilled and low-skilled immigration in Europe: A survey experiment in 15 European countries. European Journal of Political Research, 57, issue 4, pp. 1009-1030. more
Naumann, Elias, and Lukas F. Stötzer (2018): Immigration and support for redistribution: survey experiments in three European countries. West European Politics, 41, issue 1, pp. 80-101 . more
Gschwend, Thomas, Michael F. Meffert and Lukas F. Stötzer (2017): Weighting Parties and Coalitions: How Coalition Signals Influence Voting Behavior. The Journal of Politics, 79, issue 2, pp. 642-655. more
Munzert, Simon, Lukas F. Stötzer, Thomas Gschwend, Marcel Neunhoeffer and Sebastian Sternberg (2017): Zweitstimme.org. Ein strukturell-dynamisches Vorhersagemodell für Bundestagswahlen. Politische Vierteljahresschrift, 58, issue 3, pp. 418-441. more
Gschwend, Thomas, Lukas F. Stötzer and Steffen Zittlau (2016): What drives rental votes? How coalitions signals facilitate strategic coalition voting. Electoral Studies , 44, issue December, pp. 293-306. more
Stötzer, Lukas F., Steffen Zittlau, Thomas Gschwend and Tobias Witt (2015): Leihstimmen im Bundestagswahljahr 2013. Journal of Political Psychology, 4, issue 1, pp. 88-107. more
Stötzer, Lukas F., and Steffen Zittlau (2015): Multidimensional Spatial Voting with Non-separable Preferences. Political Analysis, 23, issue 3, pp. 415-428. more

Web Publications

Gschwend, Thomas, Simon Munzert, Marcel Neunhoeffer, Sebastian Sternberg and Lukas F. Stötzer (2017): New German election forecast: Merkel’s party will win but lose seats, The Washington Post: Monkey Cage more

Conference Presentations

Adendorf, Anna, Ines Rehbein, Oke Bahnsen, Thomas Gschwend, Simone Paolo Ponzetto and Lukas F. Stötzer (2021): Who wants to go with whom? Identifying coalition signals in newspaper articles using transfer learning. [11th Annual Meeting of the European Political Science Association, (virtual conference), June 24th to June 25th, 2021] more
Adendorf, Anna, Ines Rehbein, Oke Bahnsen, Thomas Gschwend, Simone Paolo Ponzetto and Lukas F. Stötzer (2021): Who wants to go with whom? Identifying coalition signals in newspaper articles using transfer learning. [28. Wissenschaftlicher Kongress der Deutschen Vereinigung für Politikwissenschaft, (virtual conference), September 14th to September 16th, 2021] more
Gschwend, Thomas, Indridi H. Indridason and Lukas F. Stötzer (2018): Pre-Electoral Coalition Strategies in Multiparty Systems. [8th Annual Conference of the European Political Science Association, Vienna, June 21st to June 23rd, 2018] more
Stötzer, Lukas F., Indridi I. Indridason and Thomas Gschwend (2018): Pre-Electoral Coalition Strategies in Multiparty Systems. [27. Wissenschaftliche Kongress der Deutschen Vereinigung für Politikwissenschaft, Frankfurt am Main, September 25th to September 28th, 2018] more
Stötzer, Lukas F., Simon Munzert, Thomas Gschwend, Marcel Neunhoeffer and Sebastian Sternberg (2017): Forecasting Elections in Multi-party Systems: A Backwards Random-walk Approach. [11th ECPR General Conference, Oslo, September 06th to September 09th, 2017] more
Stötzer, Lukas F., Simon Munzert, Thomas Gschwend, Marcel Neunhoeffer and Sebastian Sternberg (2017): Forecasting Elections in Multi-party Systems: A Backwards Random-walk Approach. [7th Annual General Conference of the European Political Science Association, Milan, June 22nd to June 24th, 2017] more
Stötzer, Lukas F., Simon Munzert, Thomas Gschwend, Marcel Neunhoeffer and Sebastian Sternberg (2017): Forecasting Elections in Multi-party Systems: A Backwards Random-walk Approach. [Invited Talk, University of Amsterdam, September 14th, 2017] more
Gschwend, Thomas, Lukas F. Stötzer and Steffen Zittlau (2015): Valence Campaigning in the 2008 US Congressional Elections. [111th Annual Conference of the American Political Science Association, San Francisco, September 03rd to September 06th, 2015] more
Gschwend, Thomas, Lukas F. Stötzer and Steffen Zittlau (2014): Why don't you talk about policy? Valence campaigning in the 2008 US Congressional elections. [4th Annual General Conference of the European Political Science Association, Edinburgh, June 19th to June 21st, 2014] more
Gschwend, Thomas, Michael Meffert and Lukas F. Stötzer (2013): How Coalition Signals Influence Voting Behavior. [3rd Annual General Conference of the European Political Science Association, Barcelona, June 20th to June 22nd, 2013] more