Analyzing 118 countries between 1960 and 2016, we find that higher temperatures
correlate with higher urbanization rates in the long run, where this relationship is
much more pronounced than any short-term linkage. The long-run relationship
between global warming and urbanization is also conditional upon country-specific
conditions. This long-run association is especially relevant in poorer and more agri-
culture-dependent countries with an urban bias as well as in initially non-urban coun-
tries in hotter climate zones. We also provide suggestive evidence that warming con-
tributes to losses in agricultural productivity and to pro-urban shifts in public goods
provision and that the global warming-urbanization nexus is partly mediated through
these channels. Consequently, we argue that the estimated long-run relationship
between temperature and urbanization partly captures the potential impact of increas-
ing temperatures on urbanization via a rural push (by impairing agriculture) and an
urban pull (via an increased demand for public goods primarily supplied in cities).
