Prof. Dr. Simon Munzert

Simon Munzert
External Fellow and Project Director
Phone: 
+49-621-181-2842
 
 

Projects

B1 Conditions of Democratic Governance: Behaviour and Orientations of Citizens

B1.2305
Election Forecasts for the German Federal Election 2025

RP9 B2 Contexts for Democratic Governance: Political Institutions

RP9
Cloaked Campaigning: Politicians in the Wikipedia Marketplace of Information

Publications

(Note: Generally, the former staff pages only feature publications that have been published at the MZES. Furthermore, the former staff pages feature publications that have been published in co-authorship with current MZES staff.)

Journal Articles

Stoetzer, Lukas, Simon Munzert, Will Lowe, Başak Çalı, Anita R. Gohdes, Marc Helbling, Rahsaan Maxwell and Richard Traunmüller (2023): Affective partisan polarization and moral dilemmas during the COVID-19 pandemic. Political Science Research and Methods, 11, issue 2, pp. 429-436. more
Gschwend, Thomas, Klara Müller, Simon Munzert, Marcel Neunhoeffer and Lukas Stoetzer (2022): The Zweitstimme Model: A Dynamic Forecast of the 2021 German Federal Election. PS: Political Science and Politics, 55, issue 1, pp. 85-90. more
Helbling, Marc, Rahsaan Maxwell, Simon Munzert and Richard Traunmüller (2022): The importance of citizenship for deserving COVID-19 treatment. Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, 9, (article no. 302) e-only. more
Neunhoeffer, Marcel, Thomas Gschwend, Simon Munzert and Lukas Stoetzer (2020): Ein Ansatz zur Vorhersage der Erststimmenanteile bei Bundestagswahlen. Politische Vierteljahresschrift, 61, issue 1, pp. 111-113. more
Stötzer, Lukas F., Marcel Neunhoeffer, Thomas Gschwend, Simon Munzert and Sebastian Sternberg (2019): Forecasting Elections in Multiparty Systems: A Bayesian Approach Combining Polls and Fundamentals. Political Analysis, 27, issue 2, pp. 255-262. more
Munzert, Simon (2017): Forecasting elections at the constituency level: A correction-combination procedure. International Journal of Forecasting, 33, issue 2, pp. 467-481. more
Munzert, Simon, Lukas F. Stötzer, Thomas Gschwend, Marcel Neunhoeffer and Sebastian Sternberg (2017): Zweitstimme.org. Ein strukturell-dynamisches Vorhersagemodell für Bundestagswahlen. Politische Vierteljahresschrift, 58, issue 3, pp. 418-441. more
Herrmann, Michael, Simon Munzert and Peter Selb (2016): Determining the effect of strategic voting on election results. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A, 179, issue 2, pp. 583-605. more
Selb, Peter, and Simon Munzert (2016): Forecasting the 2013 German Bundestag Election Using Many Polls and Historical Election Results. German Politics, 25, issue 1, pp. 73-83. more

Web Publications

Cohen, Denis, Nick Baumann and Simon Munzert (2019): Studying Politics on and with Wikipedia, Methods Bites - Blog of the MZES Social Science Data Lab, https://www.mzes.uni-mannheim.de/socialsciencedatalab/article/studying-politics-wikipedia/ more
Gschwend, Thomas, Simon Munzert, Marcel Neunhoeffer, Sebastian Sternberg and Lukas F. Stötzer (2017): New German election forecast: Merkel’s party will win but lose seats, The Washington Post: Monkey Cage more

Conference Presentations

Helbling, Marc, Rahsaan Maxwell, Simon Munzert and Richard Traunmüller (2021): Does every life count the same? Evidence from a triage experiment. [15. General Conference of the ECPR, (virtual conference), August 30th to September 03rd, 2021] more
Stötzer, Lukas F., Simon Munzert, Thomas Gschwend, Marcel Neunhoeffer and Sebastian Sternberg (2017): Forecasting Elections in Multi-party Systems: A Backwards Random-walk Approach. [11th ECPR General Conference, Oslo, September 06th to September 09th, 2017] more
Stötzer, Lukas F., Simon Munzert, Thomas Gschwend, Marcel Neunhoeffer and Sebastian Sternberg (2017): Forecasting Elections in Multi-party Systems: A Backwards Random-walk Approach. [7th Annual General Conference of the European Political Science Association, Milan, June 22nd to June 24th, 2017] more
Stötzer, Lukas F., Simon Munzert, Thomas Gschwend, Marcel Neunhoeffer and Sebastian Sternberg (2017): Forecasting Elections in Multi-party Systems: A Backwards Random-walk Approach. [Invited Talk, University of Amsterdam, September 14th, 2017] more
Munzert, Simon (2016): Scrutinizing the Myth of Adolf Hitler as a Consummate Campaigner. [6th Annual General Conference of the European Political Science Association, Brussels, June 23rd to June 25th, 2016] more
Munzert, Simon (2016): Using Wikipedia Article Traffic Volume to Measure Public Issue Attention. [6th Annual General Conference of the European Political Science Association, Brussels, June 23rd to June 25th, 2016] more