Prof. Dr. Paul W. Thurner

former staff member
Phone: 
+49-621-181-2842
 
 

Research Interests

  • Comparative Governance
  • Empirical Application of Formal Models
  • Discrete Choice Modelling / Network Analysis
  • Electoral Research / Collective Decision Making

Projects

RP7 B2 Contexts for Democratic Governance

Comparative Phasing-Out Nuclear Energy: Public Policies, Party Competition and Public Opinion in European Countries

RP7 BI Associated Projects

Formal and Informal Organizations of the Government in the EU-15: Description and Effects on the Decision-making Process Considering EU Intergovernmental Negotiations

RP5 B6 Institutionalization of International Negotiation Systems

European Health Policy and National Regulation of Pharmaceutical Markets
Negotiation and Institutionalization: Explaining International Institutional Choice and Comparing the Performance of Negotiations within Different Institutional Settings
Comparative Health Care Systems in the European Union
National Interministerial Co-ordination and International Negotiations: A Model and Explanation of the Amsterdam Treaty

RP1-3 Department II: Development Trends and Problems of Democratic Government Systems

National public opionion and international negotiations. The entry into the third stage of the European Monetary Union. The intergovernmental conference 1996
Comparative Electoral Research
Probabilistic modelling of the vote in multiparty systems

Publications

(Note: Generally, the former staff pages only feature publications that have been published at the MZES. Furthermore, the former staff pages feature publications that have been published in co-authorship with current MZES staff.)

Monographs

Thurner, Paul W., and Franz Urban Pappi (2009): European Union Intergovernmental Conferences: Domestic Preference Formation, Transgovernmental Networks, and the Dynamics of Compromise. New York / London: Routledge. [Routledge/Uaces Contemporary European Studies; 10] more
Thurner, Paul W. (2006): Die graduelle Konstitutionalisierung der Europäischen Union. Eine quantitative Fallstudie am Beispiel der Regierungskonferenz 1996. Tübingen: Mohr Siebeck. [Einheit der Gesellschaftswissenschaften; 136] more
Thurner, Paul W. (1998): Wählen als rationale Entscheidung. Die Modellierung von Politikreaktionen im Mehrparteiensystem. München: Oldenbourg. more

Editions

Müller, Wolfgang C., and Paul W. Thurner (Eds.) (2017): The Politics of Nuclear Energy in Western Europe. Oxford: Oxford University Press. more
Pappi, Franz Urban, Eibe Riedel, Paul W. Thurner and Roland Vaubel (Eds.) (2004): Die Institutionalisierung internationaler Verhandlungen. Frankfurt/New York: Campus. [Mannheimer Jahrbuch für Europäische Sozialforschung; 8] more

Journal Articles

Mauerer, Ingrid, Paul W. Thurner and Marc Debus (2015): Under Which Conditions Do Parties Attract Voters’ Reactions to Issues? Party-Varying Issue Voting in German Elections 1987–2009. West European Politics, 38, issue 6, pp. 1251-1273. more
Shikano, Susumu, Michael Herrmann and Paul W. Thurner (2009): Strategic Voting under Proportional Representation: Threshold Insurance in German Elections. West European Politics, 32, issue 3, pp. 634-656. more
Thurner, Paul W., and Martin Binder (2009): European Union Transgovernmental Networks: The Emergence of a New Political Space beyond the Nation-State?. European Journal of Political Research, 48, issue 1, pp. 80-106. more
Thurner, Paul W. (2008): Rezension von: Hofmann, Herwig/Türk, Alexander (Hrsg.), 2005: EU Administrative Governance. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar. European Journal of International Law, issue 19, pp. 455-456. more
Boockmann, Bernhard, and Paul W. Thurner (2006): Flexibility Provisions in Multilateral Environmental Treaties. International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, 6, pp. 113-135. more
Thurner, Paul W., and Franz Urban Pappi (2006): Domestic and International Politics during EU Intergovernmental Conferences. Bridging the Gap between Negotiation Theory and Practice. Negotiation Journal, 22, issue 2, pp. 167-185. more
Thurner, Paul W., Michael Stoiber and Cornelia Weinmann (2005): Informelle Transgouvernementale Koordinationsnetzwerke der Ministerialbürokratie der EU-Mitgliedstaaten bei einer Regierungskonferenz. Politische Vierteljahresschrift, 46, issue 4, pp. 552-574. more
Thurner, Paul W. (2005): Rezension von Thomas Bräuninger: Internationale Institutionenpolitik: die Wahl von Entscheidungsregeln für die Meeresbodenbehörde. Kölner Zeitschrift für Soziologie und Sozialpsychologie, 57, issue 2, pp. 356-358. more
Thurner, Paul W., and Eric Linhart (2004): Political Multilevel Negotiations and Issue Linkage during an EU Intergovernmental Conference: An Empirical Application. Computational and Mathematical Organization Theory. (Special Issue on Social Structures, Decision Making, and Governance in the Information Society, ed. by Giampiero E.G. Beroggi), 10, issue 3, pp. 243-266. more
Thurner, Paul W., Clemens Kroneberg and Michael Stoiber (2003): Strategisches Signalisieren bei internationalen Verhandlungen. Eine quantitative Analyse am Beispiel der Regierungskonferenz 1996. Zeitschrift für Internationale Beziehungen, 10, issue 2, pp. 287-320. more
Pappi, Franz Urban, and Paul W. Thurner (2002): Electoral Behavior in a Two-Vote-System: Incentives for Ticket Splitting in German Bundestag Elections. European Journal of Political Research, 41, pp. 207-232. more
Thurner, Paul W., and Michael Stoiber (2002): Interministerielle Netzwerke: Formale und informelle Koordinationsstrukturen bei der Vorbereitung der deutschen Verhandlungspositionen zur Regierungskonferenz 1996. Politische Vierteljahresschrift, 42, issue 4, pp. 561-605. more
Pappi, Franz Urban, and Paul W. Thurner (2000): Die deutschen Wähler und der Euro: Auswirkungen auf die Bundestagswahl 1998?. Politische Vierteljahresschrift(PVS), 41, issue 3, pp. 435-465. more
Thurner, Paul W., and Angelika Eymann (2000): Policy-specific alienation and indifference in the calculus of voting: A simultaneous model of party choice and abstention. Public Choice, issue 102, pp. 51-77. more
Thurner, Paul W. (2000): The empirical application of the spatial theory of voting in multiparty systems with random utility models. Electoral Studies, issue 19, pp. 493-517. more
Thurner, Paul W. (2000): Überhangmandate: theoretisch und empirisch unerschöpft. Rezension von Holger Jakob: Überhangmandat und Gleichheit der Wahl. Ein Beitrag zur aktuellen Wahlrechtsdiskusison. Zeitschrift für Parlamentsfragen, 31, issue 2, pp. 493-494. more
Thurner, Paul W. (1999): Taktisch oder Aufrichtig? Zur Untersuchung des Stimmensplittings bei Bundestagswahlen. Eine Replik auf Harald Schoens Beitrag in Heft 2/1998 der Zeitschrift für Parlamentsfragen. Zeitschrift für Parlamentsfragen, 30, issue 1, pp. 163-166. more

Book Chapters

Müller, Wolfgang C., Paul W. Thurner and Christian Schulze (2017): Conclusion: Explaining Nuclear Policy Reversals. Pp. 286-324 in: Wolfgang C. Müller, Paul W. Thurner (Eds.) The Politics of Nuclear Energy in Western Europe. Oxford: Oxford University Press. more
Müller, Wolfgang C., and Paul W. Thurner (2017): Nuclear Energy in Western Europe: Revival or Rejection? An Introduction. Pp. 1-20 in: Wolfgang C. Müller, Paul W. Thurner (Eds.) The Politics of Nuclear Energy in Western Europe. Oxford: Oxford University Press. more
Müller, Wolfgang C., and Paul W. Thurner (2017): Understanding Policy Reversals and Policy Stability. Pp. 21-46 in: Wolfgang C. Müller, Paul W. Thurner (Eds.) The Politics of Nuclear Energy in Western Europe. Oxford: Oxford University Press. more
Thurner, Paul W., Wolfgang C. Müller and Christian Schulze (2017): Appendix: Other European Countries—An Analytical Reconstruction. Pp. 324-360 in: Wolfgang C. Müller, Paul W. Thurner (Eds.) The Politics of Nuclear Energy in Western Europe. Oxford: Oxford University Press. more
Thurner, Paul W., and Wolfgang C. Müller (2017): Comparative Policy Indicators on Nuclear Energy. Pp. 47-64 in: Wolfgang C. Müller, Paul W. Thurner (Eds.) The Politics of Nuclear Energy in Western Europe. Oxford: Oxford University Press. more
Thurner, Paul W., Sylvain Brouard, Martin Dolezal, Isabelle Guinaudeau, Swen Hutter and Wolfgang C. Müller (2017): The Conflict over Nuclear Energy: Public Opinion, Protest Movements, and Green Parties in Comparative Perspective. Pp. 65-97 in: Wolfgang C. Müller, Paul W. Thurner (Eds.) The Politics of Nuclear Energy in Western Europe. Oxford: Oxford University Press. more
Thurner, Paul W. (2010): Political Network Analysis. Pp. 1257-1259 in: Geoffrey Garrett, Margaret Levi, Paula D. McClain, James E. Alt, Simone Chambers (Eds.) Encyclopedia of Political Science. Washington: CQ Press. more
Thurner, Paul W. (2009): Enhancing Horizontal and Vertical Self-Organization: Harnessing Informal Networks to Integrate Policies Within and Between Governments in the European Union. Pp. 261-284 in: Rick Feiock, John T. Scholz (Eds.) Self-organizing Federalism: Collaborative Mechanisms to Mitigate Institutional Collective Action. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. more
Thurner, Paul W. (2009): Internationale Verhandlungen und Interministerielle Koordination. Pp. 259-270 in: Datenwelten. Datenerhebung und Datenbestände in der Politikwissenschaft. Baden-Baden: Nomos. more
Thurner, Paul W. (2008): Nichtförmliche Verwaltungskooperation der Ministerialbürokratien der EU-Mitgliedstaaten und netzwerkbasierte Zusammenstellung von nationalen und übernationalen Prozessteams. Pp. 401-429 in: Gunnar Folke Schuppert, Michael Zürn (Eds.) Governance in einer sich wandelnden Welt (PVS-Sonderheft 1/2008). Wiesbaden: VS Verlag für Sozialwissenschaften. more
Thurner, Paul W. (2008): Verfahren der kollektiven Entscheidungsfindung. Pp. 275-280 in: Stefan Gosepath, Wilfried Hinsch, Beate Rössler (Eds.) Handbuch der politischen Philosophie und Sozialphilosophie. Berlin, New York: Walter de Gruyter. more
Herrmann, Michael, Susumu Shikano, Paul W. Thurner and Axel Becker (2006): Die Analyse von Wählerpräferenzen mit Rank Ordered Logit. Pp. 113-134 in: Thomas Bräuninger, Joachim Behnke (Eds.) Jahrbuch Handlungs- und Entscheidungstheorie, Band 4. Wiesbaden: VS Verlag. more
Thurner, Paul W. (2006): Modelle diskreter Entscheidungen. Pp. 193-204 in: Joachim Behnke, Thomas Gschwend, Delia Schindler, Kai-Uwe Schnapp (Eds.) Methoden der Politikwissenschaft. Neuere qualitative und quantitative Analyseverfahren. Baden-Baden: Nomos. more
Thurner, Paul W., and Franz Urban Pappi (2005): Quantitative Negotiation Analyses: Insights from the Social Scientists’ Craft. Pp. 97-121 in: Eibe Riedel, Dirk Hanschel (Eds.) Institutionalization of International Negotiation Systems. Theoretical Concepts and Practical Insights. Mannheim: Mannheimer Zentrum für Europäische Sozialforschung. more
Linhart, Eric, and Paul W. Thurner (2004): Die Erklärungskraft spiel- und tauschtheoretischer Verhandlungsmodelle. Ein empirischer Vergleich am Beispiel des Endgames der Regierungskonferenz 1996. Pp. 261-289 in: Eibe Riedel, Roland Vaubel (Eds.) Die Institutionalisierung Internationaler Verhandlungssysteme. Frankfurt/New York: Campus-Verl.. more
Pappi, Franz Urban, Eibe Riedel, Paul W. Thurner and Roland Vaubel (2004): Die Institutionalisierung internationaler Verhandlungssysteme als Fragestellung einer interdisziplinären Forschergruppe. Pp. 11-30 in: Eibe Riedel, Roland Vaubel (Eds.) Die Institutionalisierung Internationaler Verhandlungen. Frankfurt/New: Campus. more
Stoiber, Michael, and Paul W. Thurner (2004): Die Ratifikation intergouvernementaler Verträge. Konstitutionelle Erfordernisse und akteurspezifische Agendakontrolle. Pp. 173-203 in: Eibe Riedel, Roland Vaubel (Eds.) Die Institutionalisierung Internationaler Verhandlungen. Frankfurt/Main: Campus Verlag. more
Thurner, Paul W. (2004): Determinanten transgouvernementaler Koordinationsbeziehungen der Ministerien der EU-Mitgliedstaaten: Eine Überprüfung der Keohane/Nye-Conjecture. Pp. 165-180 in: Christian H.C.A. Henning, Christian Melbeck (Eds.) Interdisziplinäre Sozialforschung. Theorie und empirische Anwendungen. Festschrift für Franz Urban Pappi. Frankfurt/New York: Campus. more
Thurner, Paul W. (2000): Agrarstruktur und der Aufstieg der NSDAP in Bayern. Die Rolle der Betriebsgrössenstruktur. Pp. 83-110 in: Stefan Immerfall (Ed.) Parteien, Kulturen und Konflikte. Beiträge zur multikulturellen Gegenwartsgesellschaft. (Festschrift für Alf Mintzel). Opladen: Westdeutscher Verlag. more
Thurner, Paul W., and Franz Urban Pappi (1998): Retrospektives und prospektives Wählen in Mehrparteiensystemen mit Koalitionsregierungen. Die Bundestagswahl 1994. Pp. 113-144 in: Max Kaase, Hans-Dieter Klingemann (Eds.) Wahlen und Wähler. Analysen aus Anlaß der Bundestagswahl 1994. Opladen: Westdeutscher Verlag. more
Thurner, Paul W. (1997): Nationale öffentliche Meinungen und internationale Verhandlungssysteme. Die Regierungskonferenz 1996. Pp. 187-201 in: Rudolf Hrbek (Ed.) Die Reform der Europäischen Union. Positionen und Perspektiven anläßlich der Regierungskonferenz. Baden-Baden: Nomos Verlagsgesellschaft. more

MZES Working Papers

Saam, Nicole, Paul W. Thurner and Frank Arndt (2004): Dynamics of International Negotiations : a Simulation of EU Intergovernmental Conferences. Mannheim [Mannheimer Zentrum für Europäische Sozialforschung: Arbeitspapiere; 78] more
Thurner, Paul W., and Eric Linhart (2004): EU intergovernmental conferences and domestic politics: an empirical application of the Putnam conjectures. Mannheim [Mannheimer Zentrum für Europäische Sozialforschung: Arbeitspapiere; 77] more
Thurner, Paul W., Clemens Kroneberg and Michael Stoiber (2003): Strategisches Signalisieren bei internationalen Verhandlungen. Eine empirisch-quantitative Analyse am Beispiel der Regierungskonferenz 1996. Mannheim [Mannheimer Zentrum für Europäische Sozialforschung: Arbeitspapiere; 70] more
Thurner, Paul W., Franz Urban Pappi and Michael Stoiber (2002): EU Intergovernmental Conferences. A Quantitative Analytical Reconstruction and Data-Handbook of Domestic Preference Formation, Transnational Networks, and Dynamics of Compromise during the Amsterdam Treaty Negotiations. Mannheim [Mannheimer Zentrum für Europäische Sozialforschung: Arbeitspapiere; 60] more
Thurner, Paul W., and Michael Stoiber (2001): Interministerielle Netzwerke : Formale und informelle Koordinationsstrukturen bei der Vorbereitung der deutschen Verhandlungspositionen zur Regierungskonferenz 1996. Mannheim [Mannheimer Zentrum für Europäische Sozialforschung: Arbeitspapiere; 37] more
Stoiber, Michael, and Paul W. Thurner (2000): Der Vergleich von Ratifikationsstrukturen der EU-Mitgliedsländer für Intergouvernementale Verträge : Eine Anwendung des Veto-Spieler Konzeptes. Mannheim [Mannheimer Zentrum für Europäische Sozialforschung: Arbeitspapiere; 27] more
Thurner, Paul W., and Franz Urban Pappi (1999): Causes and Effects of Coalition Preferences in a Mixed-Member Proportional System. Mannheim [Mannheimer Zentrum für Europäische Sozialforschung: Arbeitspapiere; 1] more
Thurner, Paul W., and Franz Urban Pappi (1998): Measuring and Explaining Strategic Voting in the German Electoral System. Mannheim [Arbeitsbereich II; 21] more
Thurner, Paul W., and Angelika Eymann (1997): Policy-Specific Alienation and Indifference in the Calculus of Voting: A Simultaneous Model of Party Choice and Abstention. Mannheim [Arbeitsbereich II; 18] more
Thurner, Paul W. (1996): Estimating the Parameters of a Spatial Voting Model with Multiattributive Random Utility Models. An Empirical Analysis of the 1990 Bundestag Election. Mannheim [Arbeitsbereich II; 13] more

Thesis

Thurner, Paul W. (2004): Die graduelle Konstitutionalisierung der Europäischen Union. Eine quantitative Fallstudie am Beispiel der Regierungskonferenz 1996. Mannheim: Universität Mannheim. more

Papers / Reports

Thurner, Paul W., and Martin Binder (2007): Effectiveness of Ministries’ Claims in EU Intergovernmental Negotiations: A Multi-Level Approach. Chicago more
Shikano, Susumu, Michael Herrmann and Paul W. Thurner (2006): Explaining German Strategic List Voting with a Two-Step Random Utility Approach. more
Thurner, Paul W., and Martin Binder (2006): EU Transgovernmental Networks: The Emergence of a New Political Space beyond the Nation State?. more
Saam, Nicole, Paul W. Thurner and Frank Arndt (2004): Dynamics of International Negotiations. A Simulation of EU Intergovernmental Conferences. [Proceedings of the Sixth International Conference on Logic and Methodology. August 17-20, 2004, Amsterdam, The Netherlands] more
Boockmann, Bernhard, and Paul W. Thurner (2002): Flexibility Provisions in Multilateral Environmental Treaties. Mannheim [ZEW Discussion Paper] more
Linhart, Eric, and Paul W. Thurner (2002): Die Erklärungskraft spiel- und tauschtheoretischer Verhandlungsmodelle bei gegebenem Institutionalisierungsgrad. Ein empirischer Vergleich am Beispiel des Endgames der Regierungskonferenz 1996. Mannheim more
Thurner, Paul W., and Peter Kotzian (2001): Comparative Health Care Systems. Outline for an empirical application of New Institutional Economics approaches. Grenoble more
Thurner, Paul W., Angelika Eymann and Franz Urban Pappi (2000): Voter Reactions Towards EMU: Did Foreign Trade Sensitivity Matter?. Washington more

Conference Presentations

Debus, Marc, and Paul W. Thurner (2011): Issue Voting in German Elections over Time. [European Political Science Association Annual Conference, Dublin, June 16th to June 18th, 2011] more
Binder, Martin, and Paul W. Thurner (2007): National Position Taking in International Negotiations. [65th Annual National Conference Midwest Political Science Association, Chicago, IL, April 12th to April 15th, 2007] more
Thurner, Paul W. (2007): APSA Short Course 'Applied Political Network Analysis', full day session. [Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association 2007, Chicago, August 29th, 2007] more
Thurner, Paul W. (2007): Effectiveness of Ministries’ Claims in EU Intergovernmental Negotiations: A Multi-Level Approach. [Midwest Political Science Association, Chicago, April 11th to April 14th, 2007] more
Thurner, Paul W. (2007): Intergouvernemental Cooperation und Informal Administrative Action. [Coordination of Fragmented Authority: The Challenge of Institutional Collective Action in Metropolitan Areas, Florida State University, February 16th to February 17th, 2007] more
Thurner, Paul W. (2007): Intergouvernementale Kooperation und Nichtförmliches Verwaltungshandeln der Ministerialbürokratien der EU. [Autoren-Workshop zum PVS-Sonderheft 'Governance', Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin (WZB), February 08th to February 09th, 2007] more
Thurner, Paul W. (2007): Multiplex Interorganizational Networks of State Officials: A Random Effects p2-Model. [Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association 2007, Chicago, August 29th to September 02nd, 2007] more
Herrmann, Michael, Susumu Shikano and Paul W. Thurner (2006): Explaining German Strategic List Voting with a Two-Step Random Utility Approach. [Annual Conference of the Midwest Political Science Association, Chicago, April 20th to April 23rd, 2006] more
Thurner, Paul W. (2006): Explaining Transgovernmental Network Choices with Exponential Random Graph Models. [Midwest Political Science Association, Chicago, April 20th to April 23rd, 2006] more
Thurner, Paul W. (2006): Intergovernmental Conferences as Distributed Decision-Making in Multi-Agent Systems. [Computational Political Economics, Centre for Interdisciplinary Research, Bielefeld, May 05th to May 06th, 2006] more
Herrmann, Michael, Susumu Shikano, Paul W. Thurner and Axel Becker (2005): Applying a Generalized Form of Discrete Choice Models to Electoral Studies: Explaining Party Rankings with Exploded Logit. [Jahrestagung des Arbeitskreises Handlungs- und Entscheidungstheorie, Mannheim, June 24th to June 25th, 2005] more
Thurner, Paul W. (2005): Explaining Transgovernmental Network Choices with Exponential Random Graph Models. [Research Group ‘Decision Theory’, German Political Science Association, Mannheim, June 23rd to June 24th, 2005] more
Thurner, Paul W. (2005): Promoting Good Governance and Development in Conflict-Affected Countries: The Role of Parliament and Government. [Wilton Park Conference, Steyning, West Sussex, June 06th to June 10th, 2005] more
Thurner, Paul W. (2005): Strategic Political Communication: A Public Choice Perspective. [International Summer Academy on Political Consulting and Strategic Campaign Communication, Mannheim, July 11th, 2005] more
Thurner, Paul W. (2005): Strategic Signalling before and during International Negotiations. [Max-Planck-Institute for Economics, Strategic Interaction Group, Jena, July 21st, 2005] more