(2017):
Multi-Level Electoral Politics. Beyond the Second-Order Election Model.
224.
Oxford,
Oxford University Press.
More
Prof. Thomas Gschwend, Ph.D.
Project director
University Mannheim, MZES
Building B
A5, 6 220
68159 Mannheim
Phone: +49-621-181-2087Building B
A5, 6 220
68159 Mannheim
E-Mail: gschwend@uni-mannheim.de
Projekte — current
- Erwartungsbildung und Wahlentscheidung
- Die Frankreich-Studie: Politische Führungspersönlichkeiten in der Superwahl des Jahres 2002
- Wählerstrategien im Super-Wahljahr 2002 in Frankreich
- Wahlkämpfe im Wahlkreis: Individualisierung politischer Repräsentation?
- Wechselwirkungen von Wahlen in Multi-Level Governance Systemen
- Wahlsystem und Parteipersonal
- Das Messen eines einheitlichen Raumes und die Dynamik von Reformpositionen
- Making Electoral Democracy Work
- Das Bundesverfassungsgericht als Vetospieler
- Themenaufmerksamkeit und legislative Reaktionsfähigkeit
- Koalitionspolitik vor der Wahl
- Verbreitet die Nachricht. Formulierung und politische Auswirkungen gerichtlicher Entscheidungstexte
- Wahlvorhersagen für die Bundestagswahl 2025
Publikation — recent
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(2004): Strategic Voting in Mixed-Electoral Systems. 2, 101. Reutlingen, SFG-Servicecenter Fachverlag. More
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(2007): Research Design in Political Science: How to Practice What They Preach. Houndmills, Palgrave Macmillan. More
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(2007): Forschungsdesign in der Politikwissenschaft : Probleme - Strategien - Anwendungen. 11, 344. Frankfurt am Main, Campus. More
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(2006): Methoden der Politikwissenschaft. Neuere qualitative und quantitative Analyseverfahren. 364. Baden-Baden, Nomos. More
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(2026): Measuring inter-party communication: a transformer-based approach. Political Science Research and Methods, tba, tba, 1-20. More
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(2025): Lessons from an AI-Sprint: a proposal for measuring human-AI cooperation in research. Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, 12, (article no 1707) 1-4. More
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(2025): Harnessing GPT for Enhanced Academic Writing: Evidence from a Field Experiment with Early-Career Researchers in the Social Sciences. Social Science Research Network SSRN, 5313034, 1-17. More
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(2025): An election forecasting model for subnational elections. Electoral Studies, 95, Article No. 102939, 1-10. More
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(2025): The Zweitstimme Forecast for the German Federal Election 2025: Coalition Majorities and Vacant Districts. PS: Political Science & Politics, 59, 1, 48-54. More
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(2025): Rallying around the leader in times of crises: The opposing effects of perceived threat and anxiety. European Journal of Political Research, 64, 2, 697-718. More
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(2025): How to place non-majoritarian institutions and political actors in a common policy space: Spatial modeling of court–executive interactions. The Journal of Politics, 87, 4, 1335 - 1349. More
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(2025): How to improve the substantive interpretation of regression results when the dependent variable is logged. Political Science Research and Methods, 13, 1, 203-211. More
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(2024): Political ambition and opposition legislative review: Bill scrutiny as an intra-party signalling device. European Journal of Political Research, 63, 1, 66-88. More
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(2023): Zwischen Wahlkreisreduzierung und Bürgernähe: Zur aktuellen Reformdiskussion des Wahlrechts in Baden-Württemberg. Zeitschrift für Parlamentsfragen (ZParl), 54, 3, 611-624. More
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(2023): Scaling Court Decisions with Citation Networks. Journal of Law and Courts, 11, 1, 25-44. More
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(2023): Candidate awareness in mixed-member electoral systems: A data-driven approach. Electoral Studies, 86, (article no. 102700), pp. 1-13. More
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(2022): Welche Auswirkungen haben größere Wahlkreise auf das Politische Verhalten? Ein empirischer Beitrag zur Wahlrechtsreform. Politische Vierteljahresschrift, 63, 4, 685-701. More
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(2022): The Zweitstimme Model: A Dynamic Forecast of the 2021 German Federal Election. PS: Political Science and Politics, 55, 1, 85-90. More
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(2022): Constructive and destructive legislative review: The government-opposition divide in parliamentary oversight. The Journal of Politics, 85, 1, 223-239. More
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(2021): The Importance of Personal Vote Intentions for the Responsiveness of Legislators: A Field Experiment. European Journal of Political Research, 60, 2, 455-473. More
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(2021): A swing vote from the ethnic backstage: The role of German American isolationist tradition for Trump’s 2016 victory. Electoral Studies, 71, (article no. 102309). More
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(2020): Ein Ansatz zur Vorhersage der Erststimmenanteile bei Bundestagswahlen. Politische Vierteljahresschrift, 61, 1, 111-113. More
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(2020): Understanding people's choice when they have two votes. Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties, 30, 4, 466-483. More
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(2020): It Is Not Only What You Say, It Is Also How You Say It: The Strategic Use of Campaign Sentiment. The Journal of Politics, 82, 3, 1044-1060. More
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(2020): How do coalition signals shape voting behavior? Revealing the mediating role of coalition expectations. Electoral Studies, 66, August 2020, (article no. 102166). More
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(2020): Die Besetzung des Bundesverfassungsgerichts. Ein Spiegelbild gesellschaftlicher Präferenzen. Politische Vierteljahresschrift, 61, 1, 39-60. More
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(2019): Forecasting Elections in Multiparty Systems: A Bayesian Approach Combining Polls and Fundamentals. Political Analysis, 27, 2, 255-262. More
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(2019): The Wisdom of Crowds Design for Sensitive Survey Questions. Electoral Studies, 57, 99-109. More
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(2018): Who brings home the pork? Parties and the role of localness in committee assignments in mixed-member proportional systems. Party Politics, 24, 5, 488-500. More
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(2018): Die "Sonntagsfrage", soziale Erwünschtheit und die AfD: Wie alternative Messmethoden der Politikwissenschaft weiterhelfen können. Politische Vierteljahresschrift, 59, 3, 493-519. More
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(2017): Weighting Parties and Coalitions: How Coalition Signals Influence Voting Behavior. The Journal of Politics, 79, 2, 642-655. More
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(2017): Machtwechsel in Sicht? Die Vorhersage des Kanzlermodells für die Bundestagswahl 2017. Politische Vierteljahresschrift, 58, 3, 392-406. More
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(2017): Zum Einfluss der Parteinähe auf das Abstimmungsverhalten der Bundesverfassungsrichter - eine quantitative Untersuchung. JuristenZeitung, 72, 17, 816-826. More
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(2017): Chancellor Model Predicts a Change of the Guards. PS: Political Science & Politics, 50, 3, 686-688. More
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(2017): Zweitstimme.org. Ein strukturell-dynamisches Vorhersagemodell für Bundestagswahlen. Politische Vierteljahresschrift, 58, 3, 418-441. More
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(2016): What drives rental votes? How coalitions signals facilitate strategic coalition voting. Electoral Studies , 44, December, 293-306. More
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(2015): Do constituency candidates matter in German Federal Elections? The personal vote as an interactive process. Electoral Studies, 39, September, 338-349. More
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(2015): Zum Einfluss der öffentlichen Meinung auf Entscheidungen des Bundesverfassungsgerichts: Eine Analyse von abstrakten Normenkontrollen sowie Bund-Länder-Streitigkeiten 1974 – 2010. Politische Vierteljahresschrift, 56, 4, 570-598. More
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(2014): A Common Left-Right Scale for Voters and Parties in Europe. Political Analysis, 22, 2, 205-223. More
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(2013): Chancellor Model Picks Merkel in 2013 German Election. Political Science & Politics, 46, 3, 481-482. More
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(2011): Polls, coalition signals and strategic voting: An experimental investigation of perceptions and effects. European Journal of Political Research, 50, 5, 636-667. More
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(2011): More than wishful thinking: Causes and consequences of voters electoral expectations about parties and coalitions. Electoral Studies, 30, 4, 804-815. More
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(2011): Polls, Coalition Signals, and Strategic Voting: An Experimental Investigation of Perceptions and Effect. European Journal of Political Research, 50, 5, 636-667. More
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(2010): Sachpolitik oder Parteipolitik? Eine Bestimmung des Parteidrucks im Bundesrat mittles bayesianischer Methoden. Politische Vierteljahresschrift, 51, 2, 223-249. More
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(2010): The Chancellor Model: Forecasting German Elections. International Journal of Forecasting, 26, 1, 42-53. More
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(2010): Das Bundesverfassungsgericht im politischen System der BRD – ein unbekanntes Wesen?. Politische Vierteljahresschrift, 51, 3, 507-530. More
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(2008): Individualised Constituency Campaigns in Mixed-Member Electoral Systems: Candidates in the 2005 German Elections. West European Politics, 31, 5, 879-1003. More
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(2008): Ignoramus, Ignorabimus? On Uncertainty in Ecological Inference. Political Analysis, 16, 1, 70-92. More
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(2008): Should I Stay or Should I Go? An Experimental Study on Voter Responses to Pre-Electoral Coalitions. European Journal of Political Research, 47, 5, 556-577. More
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(2007): Issues, Parties and Character: The Moderating Role of Ideological Thinking on Candidate Evaluation. British Journal of Political Science, 37, 1, 139-163. More
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(2007): Ticket-splitting and strategic voting under mixed electoral rules: Evidence from Germany. European Journal of Political Research, 46, 1, 1-23. More
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(2007): Individualisierte Wahlkämpfe im Wahlkreis. Eine Analyse am Beispiel des Bundestagswahlkampfes von 2005. Politische Vierteljahresschrift, 48, 2, 293-321. More
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(2007): Berliner Abgeordnetenhauswahlen 1979 bis 2001: keine Testwahlen für die Bundesebene. Zeitschrift für Parlamentsfragen , 38, 3, 531-540. More
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(2007): Institutional Incentives for Strategic Voting and Party System Change in Portugal. Portuguese Journal of Social Science, 6, 1, 15-31. More
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(2006): Candidates in the 2005 Bundestag Election: Mode of Candidacy, Campaigning and Issues. German Politics, 15, 4, 420-438. More
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(2006): Split Ticket Voting in Mixed Member Proportional Systems: The Hypothetical Case of The Netherlands. Acta Politica, 41, 2, 163-179. More
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(2005): Divided We Stand - Unified We Govern? Cohabitation and Regime Voting in the 2002 French Elections. British Journal of Political Science, 35, 691-712. More
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(2005): Zur statistischen Analyse von Vollerhebungen. Politische Vierteljahresschrift, 46, 1, O-16 – O-26. More
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(2005): Prognosemodell auf dem Prüfstand: Die Bundestagswahl 2005. Politische Vierteljahresschrift, 46, 4, 682-688. More
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(2003): Split-Ticket Patterns in Mixed-Member Proportional Election Systems: Estimates and Analyses of their Spatial Variation at the German Federal Election, 1998. British Journal of Political Science, 33, 109-127. More
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(2003): Iterative EI-Schätzungen und das interne Konsistenzproblem. Wirtschaft und Statistik, 3, 262-267. More
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(2003): Knapp aber vorhersehbar: Schröders Wahlsieg. FORUM - Forschung Universität Mannheim, 10-13. More
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(2025): What Drives Citizen Support for Electoral Reform? Disentangling Partisan, Local, and Fairness Considerations. [15th annual conference of the European Political Science Association (EPSA), Madrid, 26/06/2025 - 28/06/2025]. More
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(2025): The Zweitstimme Model: A Forecast of the 2025 German Federal Election. [121st Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association (APSA), Vancouver, 11/09/2025 - 14/09/2025]. More
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(2024): Party preferences precede coalition preferences: A response time analysis. [14th Annual Conference of the European Political Science Association, Köln, 04/07/2024 - 06/07/2024]. More
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(2024): Citizens' commitment to judicial independence: A discrete choice experiment in nine European countries. [14th Annual Conference of the European Political Science Association, Köln, 04/07/2024 - 06/07/2024]. More
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(2023): The power of words: Strategic judicial opinion-writing to influence politics and society. [13th Annual Conference of the European Political Science Association, Glasgow, 22/06/2023 - 24/06/2023]. More
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(2023): Pre-electoral coalition strategies in multiparty systems. [13th Annual Conference of the European Political Science Association, Glasgow, 22/06/2023 - 24/06/2023]. More
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(2022): Who should be selected to the highest courts? Evidence from Survey Experiments in France, Germany and the United States. [ECPR General Conference, Innsbruck, 22/08/2022 - 26/08/2022]. More
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(2022): Who should be selected to the highest courts? Evidence from survey experiments in France, Germany and the United States. [12th Annual Conference of the European Political Science Association, Prague, 23/06/2022 - 26/06/2022]. More
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(2022): Unintended Consequences of Increasing Electoral Districts? Evidence From Germany. [Tagung des DVPW-Arbeitskreises "Wahlen und politische Einstellungen", Berlin, 19/05/2022 - 20/05/2022]. More
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(2021): Simulating Quantities of Interest when the Dependent Variable is Logged. [1. PolMeth Europe Conference, (virtual conference), 17/03/2021 - 19/03/2021]. More
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(2021): Who wants to go with whom? Identifying coalition signals in newspaper articles using transfer learning. [28. Wissenschaftlicher Kongress der Deutschen Vereinigung für Politikwissenschaft, (virtual conference), 14/09/2021 - 16/09/2021]. More
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(2021): Give them the word, they sharpen the sword - How high courts use language to exert political and societal power. [15th General Conference of the ECPR, (virtual conference), 30/08/2021 - 03/09/2021]. More
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(2021): Coalition Policymaking and Opposition Legislative Review: Collaboration, Bill Obstruction, and Issue-Ownership. [11th Annual Meeting of the European Political Science Association, (virtual conference), 24/06/2021 - 25/06/2021]. More
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(2021): Give them the word, they sharpen the sword - How high courts use language to exert political and societal power. [11th Annual Meeting of the European Political Science Association, (virtual conference), 24/06/2021 - 25/06/2021]. More
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(2021): Who wants to go with whom? Identifying coalition signals in newspaper articles using transfer learning. [11th Annual Meeting of the European Political Science Association, (virtual conference), 24/06/2021 - 25/06/2021]. More
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(2020): Attitudes on Judicial Independence: A Discrete Choice Experiment in Four EU Member States. [10th Annual Conference of the European Political Science Association, (virtual conference), 18/06/2020 - 20/06/2020]. More
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(2019): Beyond text as data: Automated video analysis for research on legislative politics. [9th Annual Conference of the European Political Science Association, Belfast, 20/06/2019 - 22/06/2019]. More
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(2019): Beyond text as data: Computer vision in political research. [Political Annual Methodology Conference, Warwick, 11/01/2019 - 11/01/2019]. More
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(2019): The Constitutional Court Database. Conceptualizing a relational database. [Workshop "Multi-User Databases on Judicial Decision-Making", Florence, 10/10/2019 - 11/10/2019]. More
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(2019): Judicial Positions on Political Reform. Designing common policy scores from judicial text. [9th Annual Conference of the European Political Science Association, Belfast, 20/06/2019 - 22/06/2019]. More
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(2019): Opposition strategies in legislative review: Tracing the strategic use of legislative amendments using syntax-aware automated text analysis. [9th Annual Conference of the European Political Science Association, Belfast, 20/06/2019 - 22/06/2019]. More
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(2019): Scaling Lower Court Decisions. [Conference on Data Science and Law, Zurich, 07/06/2019 - 08/06/2019]. More
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(2019): Individual salience attributions in the US House of Representatives: Evidence from an automated analysis of parliamentary video recordings. [77th Annual Conference of the Midwest Political Science Association (MPSA), Chicago, IL, 04/04/2019 - 07/04/2019]. More
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(2018): Pre-Electoral Coalition Strategies in Multiparty Systems. [27. Wissenschaftliche Kongress der Deutschen Vereinigung für Politikwissenschaft, Frankfurt am Main, 25/09/2018 - 28/09/2018]. More
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(2018): Pre-Electoral Coalition Strategies in Multiparty Systems. [8th Annual Conference of the European Political Science Association, Vienna, 21/06/2018 - 23/06/2018]. More
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(2017): Forecasting Elections in Multi-party Systems: A Backwards Random-walk Approach. [7th Annual General Conference of the European Political Science Association, Milan, 22/06/2017 - 24/06/2017]. More
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(2017): Forecasting Elections in Multi-party Systems: A Backwards Random-walk Approach. [Invited Talk, University of Amsterdam, 14/09/2017 - 14/09/2017]. More
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(2017): Public Support for Judicial Nominations: Evidence from a Discrete-Choice Experiment. [7th Annual General Conference of the European Political Science Association, Milan, 22/06/2017 - 24/06/2017]. More
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(2017): Forecasting Elections in Multi-party Systems: A Backwards Random-walk Approach. [11th ECPR General Conference, Oslo, 06/09/2017 - 09/09/2017]. More
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(2016): Who brings home the pork? Committee Assignments under Germany's Mixed System. [44th ECPR Joint Sessions of Workshops, Pisa, 24/04/2016 - 28/04/2016]. More
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(2016): Strategic and Sincere Voting in Multi-level Systems. [Workshop Making Electoral Democracy Work, Montreal, Kanada, 17/06/2016 - 18/06/2016]. More
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(2016): Are Judges Political Animals After All? Quasi-experimental Evidence from the German Federal Constitutional Court. [6th Annual General Conference of the European Political Science Association, Brussels, 23/06/2016 - 25/06/2016]. More
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(2016): Strategic and Sincere Voting in Multi-level Systems. [6th Annual General Conference of the European Political Science Association, Brussels, 23/06/2016 - 25/06/2016]. More
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(2016): Are Judges Political Animals after All? Quasi-Experimental Evidence from the German Federal Constitutional Court. [First Conference on Empirical Legal Studies in Europe (CELSE), University of Amsterdam, 21/06/2016 - 22/06/2016]. More
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(2016): Campaign Sentiment in European Manifestos. [6th Annual General Conference of the European Political Science Association, Brussels, 23/06/2016 - 25/06/2016]. More
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(2015): Estimating Policy Perceptions of Party Influence on Coalition Policy Perceptions. [5th Annual General Conference of the European Political Science Association, Vienna, 25/06/2015 - 27/06/2015]. More
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(2015): The Electoral Source of Good Government: A Field Experiment on German MPs. [5th Annual General Conference of the European Political Science Association, Vienna, 25/06/2015 - 27/06/2015]. More
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(2015): Demand for Change: Institutional Features Empowering Judges as Policy Makers. [73rd Annual Conference of the Midwest Political Science Association, Chicago, IL, 16/04/2015 - 19/04/2015]. More
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(2015): Who brings home the pork? The role of electoral context and localness in assigning committee seats in the German Bundestag. [9th ECPR General Conference, Université de Montréal, 26/08/2015 - 29/08/2015]. More
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(2015): Constitutional Courts as Veto Players: Composition, Absorption and Decisions at the German Court. [9th ECPR General Conference, Université de Montréal, 26/08/2015 - 29/08/2015]. More
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(2015): Who brings home the pork? The role of electoral context and localness in assigning committee seats in the German Bundestag. [111th Annual Conference of the American Political Science Association, San Francisco, CA, 03/09/2015 - 06/09/2015]. More
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(2015): Valence Campaigning in the 2008 US Congressional Elections. [111th Annual Conference of the American Political Science Association, San Francisco, 03/09/2015 - 06/09/2015]. More
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(2014): Coalition Policy Perceptions. [4th Annual General Conference of the European Political Science Association, Edinburgh, 19/06/2014 - 21/06/2014]. More
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(2014): Negative Campaigning in Multicandidate Primary Elections . [4th Annual General Conference of the European Political Science Association, Edinnburgh, 19/06/2014 - 21/06/2014]. More
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(2014): The German Constitutional Court as Veto Player - Composition, Decisions and the Absorption Hypothesis. [23nd IPSA World Congress of Political Science, Montreal, 19/07/2014 - 25/07/2014]. More
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(2014): Why don't you talk about policy? Valence campaigning in the 2008 US Congressional elections. [4th Annual General Conference of the European Political Science Association, Edinburgh, 19/06/2014 - 21/06/2014]. More
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(2014): Validating own Interests through Invalidating: Judges Shaping Policy. [4th Annual General Conference of the European Political Science Association, Edinburgh, 19/06/2014 - 21/06/2014]. More
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(2014): The German Constitutional Court - Conceptualizing an Innovative Database. [110th APSA Annual Meeting 'Politics after the revolution', Washington D.C., 28/08/2014 - 31/08/2014]. More
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(2013): Courts as Veto Players: A Game Theoretic Model. [41st ECPR Joint Sessions of Workshops, University of Mainz, 11/03/2013 - 16/03/2013]. More
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(2013): The impact of the Electoral Context on Personal Vote Strategies: A Field Experiment on German Legislators. [7th ECPR General Conference, Sciences Po, Bordeaux, 04/09/2013 - 07/09/2013]. More
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(2013): How Coalition Signals Influence Voting Behavior. [3rd Annual General Conference of the European Political Science Association, Barcelona, 20/06/2013 - 22/06/2013]. More
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(2013): Negative Campaigning. [3rd Annual General Conference of the European Political Science Association, Barcelona, 20/06/2013 - 22/06/2013]. More
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(2013): Negative Campaigning. [Annual Meeting of the 'Making Electoral Democracy Work Project', McGill University, Montreal, 31/05/2013 - 01/06/2013]. More
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(2013): Understanding People's Choice When They Have Two Votes. [Annual Conference of the Canadian Political Science Association, University of Victoria, British Columbia, 04/06/2013 - 06/06/2013]. More
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(2013): Courts as Veto Players: A Game Theoretic Model. [7th ECPR General Conference, Sciences Po, Bordeaux, 04/09/2013 - 07/09/2013]. More
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(2012): Sequencing Effekte: Links-Rechts-Positionierung und weitere Survey Experimente. [AUTNES, Vienna, 04/10/2012 - 05/10/2012]. More
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(2012): Sequencing Effekte: Links-Rechts-Positionierung und weitere Instrumententests in AUTNES. [AUTNES, Vienna, 08/11/2012 - 09/11/2012]. More
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(2012): Strategic Voting: Coalitions, Preferences and Expectations. [AUTNES, Vienna, 04/10/2012 - 05/10/2012]. More
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(2012): Strategic Voting in Proportional Systems: The Case of Finland. [The Effects of District Magnitude, Lissabon, 29/05/2012 - 30/05/2012]. More
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(2012): Strategic Voting: Coalitions, Preferences and Expectations. [AUTNES, Vienna, 20/09/2012 - 20/09/2012]. More
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(2011): Do Constituency Candidates Matter in German Federal Elections? The Personal Vote as an Interactive Process. [1st Annual General Conference of the European Political Science Association, Dublin, 16/06/2011 - 18/06/2011]. More
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(2010): Improving the Measurement of Policy Preferences in Surveys: Bringing the Status-Quo back in. [REPCONG-Workshop "Policy Representation Europe", Mannheim, 28/05/2010 - 29/05/2010]. More
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(2009): Über elektorale Folgen der Politikverflechtung in Mehrebenensystemen: Auswirkungen der bundespolitischen Großwetterlage und Landtagswahlen. [Jahrestagung des Arbeitskreises "Wahlen und politische Einstellungen" der DVPW, Frankfurt am Main, 07/05/2009 - 08/05/2009]. More
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(2009): Über elektorale Folgen der Politikverflechtung in Mehrebenensystemen: Auswirkungen der bundespolitschen Großwetterlage und Landtagswahlen. [Jahrestagung des AK Wahlen und politische Einstellungen der DVPW, Frankfurt/Main, 07/05/2009 - 08/05/2009]. More
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(2009): Siegt 2009 Schwarz-Gelb? Wahlprognosen per Zauberformel. [Vortrag, Gütersloh, 10/09/2009 - 10/09/2009]. More
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(2009): Polls, Coalition Signals, and Strategic Voting: An Experimental Investigation of Perceptions and Effects.. [8. Politicologenetmaal der Niederländisch-Flämischen Politikwissenschaftler, Berg en Dal, 29/05/2009 - 30/05/2009]. More
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(2009): Assigning Committee Seats in Mixed-Member Systems - How Important is “Localness” compared to the Mode of Election?. [ECPR General Conference, Potsdam, 10/09/2009 - 12/09/2009]. More
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(2008): Strategic Coalition Voting: Evidence from Austria. [Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association (APSA), Boston, Mass., 28/08/2008 - 31/08/2008]. More
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(2008): More than Wishful Thinking: Causes and Consequences of Voter's Expectations about Election Outcomes. [International Communication Association, Annual Meeting, Montréal, 22/05/2008 - 26/05/2008]. More
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(2008): Polls, Coalition Signals, and Strategic Voting: An Experimental Investigation of Perceptions and Effects. [AK Wahlen, Annual Meeting, Duisburg, 15/05/2008 - 16/05/2008]. More
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(2008): Strategic Voting under Proportional Representation and Coalition governments: A Laboratory Experiment. [International Society for Political Psychology, Annual Meeting, Paris, 09/07/2008 - 12/07/2008]. More
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(2008): Strategisches Wahlverhalten in Mehrparteiensystemen: Ein Gruppenexperiment. [AK Handlungs- und Entscheidungstheorie, DVPW, Annual Meeting, Mainz, 27/06/2008 - 27/06/2008]. More
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(2008): Voting for Coalitions? The Role of Coalition Preferences. [Annual Meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association, Chicago, 03/04/2008 - 06/04/2008]. More
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(2008): Presentation of Country Database Issues: Germany. [Workshop on “Electoral Systems and Party Personnel, Del Mar, CA, 25/08/2008 - 27/08/2008]. More
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(2008): Vorhersagen müssen keine Hexerei sein. [Gastvorlesung Universität Darmstadt, Darmstadt, 13/06/2008 - 13/06/2008]. More
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(2008): Kausale Inferenz mit Koalitionssignalen. [Gastvorlesung, Universität Zürich, 22/09/2008 - 22/09/2008]. More
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(2008): X-zentriert statt x-beliebig: Zur Bedeutung von Randomisierung für Kausalanalysen der Politik- und Verwaltungsforschung. [Gastvorlesung, Universität Konstanz, 14/11/2008 - 14/11/2008]. More
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(2008): Strategisches Wählerverhalten und Wahlsystem. [Gastvorlesung, Universität Bamberg, 28/11/2008 - 28/11/2008]. More
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(2008): Koalitionssignale und Wahlverhalten. [Gastvorlesung, Universität Oldenburg, 11/07/2008 - 11/07/2008]. More
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(2008): Kausale Effekte von Koalitionssignalen? Experimentelle Evidenz. [Gastvorlesung, Universität Bern, 17/10/2008 - 17/10/2008]. More
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(2007): Strategic Voting under Proportional Representation & Coalition Governments: A Simulation and Laboratory Experiment . [Forschungskolloquium, Lambrecht/Pfalz, 20/07/2007 - 21/07/2007]. More
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(2007): Goldoni Goes Comparative: Institutional Incentives and Vote Choice. [Vortrag im Rahmen des Berufungsverfahrens für einen Lehrstuhl für Politikwissenschaft (professeur ordinaire) an der Université de Genève, Genf, 08/03/2007 - 08/03/2007]. More
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(2007): Individualisierte Wahlkämpfe im Wahlkreis: Eine Analyse am Beispiel des Bundestagswahlkampfes von 2005. [Wahlen und Repräsentation im politischen System der Bundesrepublik Deutschland, Köln, 26/03/2007 - 26/03/2007]. More
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(2007): Contamination effects in multi-level systems of governance. [The Multi–Level Electoral System of the EU, CONNEX-Conference (RG3), Villa La Collina, Cadenabbia, 19/03/2007 - 22/03/2007]. More
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(2007): Die Bedeutung von Umfragen im Wahlkampf. [Moderne Politikvermittlung - Neue Wahlkampfformen in der Demokratie, Berlin, 04/05/2007 - 04/05/2007]. More
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(2007): Vorhersagen müssen keine Hexerei sein: Ein sozialwissenschaftliches Prognosemodell für Bundestagswahlen. [Seminar, Universität Darmstadt, 15/06/2007 - 15/06/2007]. More
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(2007): Strategic Voting under Proportional Representation and Coalition Governments: A Case for Experimental Triangulation. [International Conference on Experimental Methods in Political Science, Brüssel, 14/12/2007 - 14/12/2007]. More
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(2007): Survey Research and Campaigns. [3rd International Summer Academy 'Political Consulting and Strategic Campaign Communication', Bruchsal, 27/09/2007 - 27/09/2007]. More
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(2007): Wahlprognosen sind keine Hexerei - Vorhersagemodelle zum Mimachen. [Die Lange Nacht der Wissenschaft, Mannheim, 10/11/2007 - 10/11/2007]. More
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(2007): Voting for Coalitions? The Role of Coalition Preferences and Expectations in Voting Behavior. [Voters, Coalitions, and Democratic Accountability, Workshop, Exeter, 05/10/2007 - 06/10/2007]. More
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(2007): Voter Responses to Pre-Electoral Coalitions in Belgium. Results from an Experimental Study. [International Conference on Experimental Methods in Political Science, Brüssel, 14/12/2007 - 14/12/2007]. More
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(2006): "Abgeordnetenhauswahlen sind keine Bundestagswahlen. Oder doch? Erfahrungsbericht aus Berlin.". [Einfluss der Bundespolitik auf Landtagswahlen, Deutscher Bundestag, Berlin, 09/11/2006 - 10/11/2006]. More
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(2006): Pre-electoral Identifiability of potential Governments: Measurement and Consequences . [Political and Social Sciences Research Forum, University Pompeu Fabra, Barcelona, 22/02/2006 - 22/02/2006]. More
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(2006): Survey Research and Campaigns. [2nd International Summer Academy on Political Consulting and Strategic Campaign Communication, Mannheim, 26/07/2006 - 26/07/2006]. More
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(2006): Der Bundestagswahlkampf von 2005 und Kollektive Repräsentation: Ein kurzer Auftakt zum langen Abschied. [Gemeinsame Tagung der DVPW-Arbeitskreise "Politik und Kommunikation", "Wahlen und Einstellungen" und "Parteienforschung", Berlin, 19/07/2006 - 20/07/2006]. More
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(2006): Personalisierte Wahlkämpfe im Wahlkreis. Eine Analyse des Bundestagswahlkampfes von 2005. [3-Länder-Tagung "Politik und Persönlichkeit" der ÖGPW - SVPW - DVPW, Vienna, 30/11/2006 - 02/12/2006]. More
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(2006): Identifiability of Coalitions, District Magnitude and Strategic Voting. [Annual Meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association, Chicago, 20/04/2006 - 23/04/2006]. More
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(2006): What Can We Learn From Almost Nothing? An Extended Maximum Entropy Approach to Uncertainty in RxC Ecological Inference, with an Application to Split-Ticket Voting. [Conference of the Center for American Political Studies, Harvard University, on “Democracy, Divided Government, and Split-Ticket Voting, Harvard, 26/05/2006 - 27/05/2006]. More
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(2006): How Much Can Be Inferred From Almost Nothing? A Maximum Entropy Approach to Fundamental Indeterminacy in Ecological Inference With an Application to District-Level Prediction of Split-Ticket Voting. [Second international R user conference useR!, Vienna, 15/06/2006 - 17/06/2006]. More
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(2006): Forecasting the Number of Split-Ticket Voters in Parliamentary Systems. [Conference of the Center for American Political Studies, Harvard University, on “Democracy, Divided Government, and Split-Ticket Voting”, Harvard, 26/05/2006 - 27/05/2006]. More
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(2006): District Magnitude and the Comparative Study of Strategic Voting. [Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, Philadelphia, 31/08/2006 - 03/09/2006]. More
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(2006): Are Modern Politics still Party Politics?. [Inaugural Conference of the Comparative Candidates Study (CCS), Bad Dürkheim, 06/10/2006 - 08/10/2006]. More
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(2006): Forecasting the Outcome of a National Election: The Influence of Expertise, Information, and Political Preferences. [Annual Conference of the International Communication Association, Dresden, 19/06/2006 - 23/06/2006]. More
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(2006): Comparative Politics of Strategic Voting: A Hierarchy of Electoral Systems. [Annual Meeting of the Elections, Public Opinion and Parties Specialist Group of the Political Studies Association, Nottingham, 08/09/2006 - 10/09/2006]. More
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(2006): Comparative Politics of Strategic Voting: A Hierarchy of Electoral Systems. [Contextual Effects in Electoral Research, Florenz, 30/11/2006 - 01/12/2006]. More
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(2005): Comparative Politics of Strategic Voting: A Hierarchy of Electoral Systems. [Annual National Conference of the Midwest Political Science Association, Chicago, IL, 07/04/2005 - 10/04/2005]. More
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(2005): Electoral Studies - Editorial Board Meeting. [Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, Washigton, DC, 31/08/2005 - 04/09/2005]. More
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(2005): Institutional Incentives for Strategic Voting: The Case of Portugal. [Electoral Behaviour and Political Attitudes: Portugal in the European Context Project, Lisbon, 27/01/2005 - 28/01/2005]. More
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(2005): Strategic Voting in Belgium. [Annual Politicologenetmaal, the 4th Dutch-Belgium Political Science Conference, Antwerp, 19/05/2005 - 20/05/2005]. More
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(2005): Ökologische Inferenz. [Autorenkonferenz 'Methoden der Politikwissenschaft', Mannheim, 18/02/2005 - 19/02/2005]. More
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(2005): Split ticket voting in Mixed Member Proportional Systems: The case of The Netherlands. [Expert Meeting 'Changing the Electoral System. The Case of the Netherlands', Amsterdam, 14/09/2005 - 15/09/2005]. More
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(2005): Should I Stay or Should I Go? Voter Reactions to Pre-Electoral Coalitions. Results from an Experimental Study in Belgium. [Annual Politicologenetmaal, the 4th Dutch-Belgium Political Science Conference, Antwerp, 18/05/2005 - 19/05/2005]. More
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(2005): EMax - Die Ergänzung der ökologischen Inferenz durch Survey-Daten. [Frühjahrstagung der Ad-Hoc-Gruppe 'Empirische Methoden der Politikwissenschaft' der DVPW, Hagen, 20/05/2005 - 21/05/2005]. More
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(2005): Clarity of pre-election coalitions and strategic voting in PR systems: The case of the Netherlands. [Annual Politicologenetmaal, the 4th Dutch-Belgium Political Science Conference, Antwerp, 18/05/2005 - 19/05/2005]. More
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(2005): Comparative Politics of Strategic Voting: A Hierarchy of Electoral Systems. [Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, Washington, DC, 31/08/2005 - 04/09/2005]. More
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(2005): Institutional Incentives for Strategic Voting: The Case of Portugal. [Portuguese Electoral Behavior: Comparative and Longitudinal Approaches, Lisbon, 27/01/2005 - 28/01/2005]. More
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(2004): Electoral Institutions and Electoral Behavior: Results of a Natural Experiment. . [Gastvortrag, University of Leiden, 12/05/2004 - 13/05/2004]. More
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(2004): Wählen und Wahlsystem: Ergebnisse eines natürlichen Experiments des deutschen Mischwahlsystems. [Gastvortrag im Rahmen des Berufungsverfahren zur Besetzung des Lehrstuhls "Methoden der Politikwissenschaft", Universität Zürich, 04/02/2004 - 04/02/2004]. More
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(2004): Political institutions: The impact of constitutions and election laws on the formation of political parties and party systems in the accession countries of the European Union.. [Gastvorlesung, Institut d’Études Politiques de Paris, Sciences Po, Dijon Campus, 06/04/2004 - 07/04/2004]. More
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(2004): MIT ROT-GRÜN INS SCHWARZE GETROFFEN: Ein sozialwissenschaftliche Prognosemodell für Bundestagswahlen . [Studium Generale, Vortragsreihe 'Forum junge Wissenschaft', Mannheim, 05/05/2004 - 05/05/2004]. More
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(2004): Strategic Voting in Proportional Systems: The Case of Finland. [Annual Meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association, Chicago, IL, 15/04/2004 - 18/04/2004]. More
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(2003): Comparative Politics of Strategic Voting: An Empirical Test of the Leys-Sartori Conjecture. [Annual Meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association, Chicago, IL, 03/04/2003 - 06/04/2003]. More
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(2003): Comparative Politics of Strategic Voting: A Hierarchy of Electoral Systems. [Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, Philadelphia, PA., 28/08/2003 - 02/09/2003]. More
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(2002): If the election were next Sunday...: A Forecast of the 2002 Bundestag Election. [Annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Boston, MA, 29/08/2002 - 01/09/2002]. More
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(2002): Ideology and Rationality: Issue Constraint in Political Decision-Making. [Annual Meeting of the International Society of Political Psychology, Berlin, 16/07/2002 - 20/07/2002]. More
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(2002): The Politics of Opinion Assignment: A Bayesian Hierarchical Approach. [Annual meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association, Chicago, IL, 25/04/2002 - 28/04/2002]. More
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(2001): Ticket-Splitting and Strategic Voting in Mixed Electoral Systems. [Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, San Francisco, CA, 29/08/2001 - 01/09/2001]. More
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(2001): Assigning the Majority Opinion: A Replication and Extension. [Annual Political Science Methodology Conference, Atlanta, GA, 20/07/2001 - 21/07/2001]. More
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(2012): Machen Wahlkreiskandidaten einen Unterschied? Die Persönlichkeitswahl als interaktiver Prozess. 371-392. Baden-Baden, Nomos Verlag. More
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(2012): Koalitionssignale und ihre Wirkungen auf Wahlentscheidungen. 45, 393-418. Baden-Baden, Nomos. More
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(2011): Experimental Triangulation of Coalition Signals: Varying Designs, Converging Results. 249-283. Basingstoke, Palgrave Macmillan. More
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(2011): Gathering Counter-Factual Evidence: An Experimental Study on Voters’ Responses to Pre-Electoral Coalitions. 413-440. Basingstoke, Palgrave Macmillan. More
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(2011): Machen Wahlkreiskandidaten einen Unterschied? Die Persönlichkeitswahl als interaktiver Prozess. 45, 371-392. Baden-Baden, Nomos. More
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(2010): Strategic Defection across Elections, Parties, and Voters. 176-196. Oxford, Oxford University Press. More
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(2009): District Magnitude and the Comparative Study of Strategic Voting. 289-307. Oxford, Oxford University Press. More
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(2009): Strategisches Wählen in Mehrparteiensystemen: ein Gruppenexperiment. 107-132. Baden-Baden, Nomos. More
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(2009): Erwartungsbildung über den Wahlausgang und ihr Einfluss auf die Wahlentscheidung. 561-584. Wiesbaden, VS Verlag für Sozialwissenschaften. More
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(2008): Abgeordnetenhauswahlen sind keine Bundestagswahlen. Oder doch? Erfahrungsbericht aus Berlin. 93-120. Baden-Baden, Nomos. More
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(2008): Studying Contamination Effects in Multi-Level Systems of Governance: First Thoughts about Hypotheses and Research Design. 229-240. Mannheim . More
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(2007): Falsification in Theory-Guided Empirical Social Research: How to Change a Tire while Riding Your Bicycle. 203-215. Basingstoke, Palgrave Macmillan. More
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(2007): Na und? Überlegungen zur theoretischen und gesellschaftlichen Relevanz in der Politikwissenschaft. 39-60. Frankfurt/Main, Campus. More
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(2007): Um was geht es? Konzeptspezifikation in der politikwissenschaftlichen Forschung. 63-89. Frankfurt/Main, Campus. More
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(2007): Increasing the Relevance of Research Questions: Considerations on Theoretical and Social Relevance in Political Science. 62-79. Houndmills, Palgrave MacMillan. More
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(2007): Concept Specification in Political Science Research. 41-61. Houndmills, Palgrave MacMillan. More
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(2007): Maßvoll Messen: Zur konzeptorientierten Entwicklung von Messinstrumenten. 123-148. Frankfurt am Main, Campus. More
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(2007): Making Measures Capture Concepts: Tools for Securing Correspondence between Theoretical Ideas and Observations. 83-102. Houndmills, Palgrave Macmillan. More
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(2007): Forschungsdesign in der Politikwissenschaft: Ein Dialog zwischen Theorie und Daten. 13-35. Frankfurt/Main, Campus Verlag. More
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(2007): Identisch und doch verschieden, verschieden und doch vergleichbar? Zur Äquivalenz von Sekundärdaten. 149-176. Frankfurt/Main, Campus Verlag. More
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(2007): Über Falsifikation in theoriegeleiteter empirischer Sozialforschung: Wie man während der Fahrt den Reifen wechselt. 305-321. Frankfurt/Main, Campus Verlag. More
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(2007): Lehren für den Dialog zwischen Theorie und Daten. 323-336. Frankfurt/Main, Campus Verlag. More
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(2007): Conclusion: Lessons for the Dialogue between Theory and Data. 216-225. Houndmills, Palgrave Macmillan. More
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(2007): Discriminating among Rival Explanations: Some Tools for Small-n Researchers. 183-200. Houndmills, Palgrave Macmillan. More
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(2007): Einige Anregungen zur Auswahl zwischen konkurrierenden Erklärungsansätzen in Y-zentrierter Forschung. 281-302. Frankfurt/Main, Campus Verlag. More
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(2007): Selecting independent variables. Competing recommendations for factor-centric and outcome-centric research designs. 163-182. Basingstoke, Palgrave. More
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(2007): "Aber könnte es nicht auch sein, dass...?" Die Auswahl unabhängiger Variablen in X-zentrierten und Y-zentrierten Forschungsdesigns. 253-279. Frankfurt, Campus. More
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(2007): Dealing Effectively with Selection Bias in Large-n Research. 127-144. Houndmills, Palgrave Macmillan. More
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(2007): Zum Umgang mit Selektionsverzerrungen in Forschungsdesigns mit großer Fallzahl. 179-200. Frankfurt/Main, Campus Verlag. More
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(2007): Introduction: Designing Research in Political Science - A Dialogue between Theory and Data. 1-18. Houndmills, Palgrave Macmillan. More
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(2006): Qualitative und Quantitative Zugänge: Eine integrative Perspektive. 11-26. Baden-Baden, Nomos. More
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(2005): Partei- und Koalitionspräferenzen der Wähler bei den Bundestagswahlen 1998 und 2002. 284-305. Wiesbaden, Verlag für Sozialwissenschaften. More
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(2005): Mit Rot-Grün ins Schwarze getroffen: Prognosemodell besteht Feuertaufe. 371-387. Wiesbaden, Verlag für Sozialwissenschaften. More
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(2004): Stimmensplitting und Koalitionswahl [Ticket-Splitting and Coalition Voting]. 167-183. Wiesbaden, VS Verlag für Sozialwissenschaften. More
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(2004): Stuck Between a Rock and a Hard Place: Electoral Dilemmas and Turnout in the 2002 French Legislative Elections. 155-177. Houndmills, Basingstoke, Palgrave. More
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(2003): Politbarometer und Wahlprognosen: Die Kanzlerfrage.. 109-123. Opladen, Leske + Budrich. More
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(2001): 'Wenn am nächsten Sonntag ...': Ein Prognosemodell für Bundestagswahlen. 473-499. Wiesbaden, Westdeutscher Verlag. More
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(2000): Soll und Haben: Die deutsche Wählerschaft rechnet mit den Parteien ab. 389 - 409. Wiesbaden, Westdeutscher Verlag. More
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(2005): Ticket-Splitting and Strategic Voting under Mixed Electoral Rules: Evidence from Germany. 05-06. Mannheim . More
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(2004): Comparative Politics of Strategic Voting: A Hierarchy of Electoral Systems. 04-41. Mannheim . More
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(2003): Augäpfel, Murmeltiere und Bayes: Zur Auswertung stochastischer Daten aus Vollerhebungen. 03/7. More
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(2020): Kontinuität am Bundesverfassungsgericht? Wie die Öffentlichkeit Voßkuhles und Masings Nachfolger bewertet. 2020, More
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(2019): Prof. Dr. parl. und Dr. noparl. - Vier Buchstaben mit großem Effekt. Falscher Professorentitel macht mit großer Wahrscheinlichkeit einen Unterschied. 2019, Osnabrück, Deutsche Vereinigung für Politische Wissenschaft. More
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(2017): No country for neophytes: Angela Merkel will win Germany again. Washington, DC, Capitol Hill Publishing. More
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(2004): Mit Rot-Grün ins Schwarze getroffen: Prognosemodell besteht Feuertaufe. 75, Mannheim, MZES. More
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(2003): When Voters Choose Regimes: The Issue of Cohabitation in the French Elections of 2002. 63, Mannheim, MZES. More