Thomas Gschwend, Helmut Norpoth
Machtwechsel in Sicht? Die Vorhersage des Kanzlermodells für die Bundestagswahl 2017

Politische Vierteljahresschrift, 2017: 58, Heft 3, S. 392-406
ISSN: 0032-3470 (print); 1862-2860 (online)

The Chancellor Model predicts that the 2017 Bundestag election will most likely confirm Angela Merkel for another term as head of the federal government. As of June this year, she leads her Social Democratic challenger Martin Schulz by a wide enough margin in chancellor popularity to overcome any fatigue with her tenure after three terms. Besides continuing with the Grand Coalition, Merkel also has the option of entering a Jamaica-coalition (with the FDP and Greens), which would command a majority in the new Bundestag. A shift in chancellor popularity, however, would change the forecast. In the event that Schulz ultimately surpasses Merkel in chancellor popularity, as he did in late February, the SPD candidate would be more likely to head the next German government.