Simon Munzert, Lukas F. Stötzer, Thomas Gschwend, Marcel Neunhoeffer, Sebastian Sternberg Ein strukturell-dynamisches Vorhersagemodell für Bundestagswahlen

Politische Vierteljahresschrift, 2017: 58, Heft 3, S. 418-441
ISSN: 0032-3470 (print); 1862-2860 (online)

We present results of an ex-ante forecast of party-specific vote shares at the German Federal Election 2017. To that end, we combine data from published trial heat polls with structural information. The model takes care of the multi-party nature of the setting and allows making statements about the probability of certain events, such as the plurality of votes for a party or the majority for coalition options in parliament. The forecasts of our model are continuously being updated on the platform The value of our approach goes beyond the realms of academia: We equip journalists, political pundits, and ordinary citizens with information that can help make sense of the parties’ latent support and ultimately make voting decisions better informed.